• Sub-Saharan Africa
    American Foreign Policy Toward Africa
    For many of us, the American lack of attention toward Africa is short-sighted and frustrating. It is to the great credit of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy that it has devoted the entire November-December issue of its journal, American Foreign Policy Interests, to “Africa’s Conflicting Challenges: Security vs. Modernization.” The guest editor of this special issue is Herman J. Cohen, a former assistant secretary of state for Africa. The lead articles are by Macky Sall, who was elected president of Senegal in 2012 in free and fair elections and born after the colonial era was over, and Johnnie Carson, assistant secretary of state for Africa throughout President Obama’s first term. President Sall argues for a new U.S.-Africa partnership based on trade and investment, while Ambassador Carson details the successes (often quiet and not dramatic) of the Obama administration’s Africa policy. In contributions by other authors, Sudan and South Sudan receive detailed attention. Ambassador Princeton Lyman, ret., analyzes South Sudan’s unresolved issues, especially timely given the current fighting there. Ambassador Dane Smith, ret., looks at the governance challenges and their contexts in Khartoum. Col. Laura Varhola and Col. Thomas Shepherd look at the U.S. and Africa from a military perspective, while I question whether Washington’s approach is becoming too influenced by military considerations related to terrorism. Ray Leonard, a president and CEO with extensive experience in the hydrocarbon industry, looks at the future of African oil production. The issue concludes with Ambassador Cohen’s review of Richard Dowden’s important book, Africa: Altered States, Ordinary Miracles. Ambassador Cohen’s introduction lays the table for the intellectual feast. His concluding “For the Record” gives high marks to the Obama administration’s Africa policy, with one glaring exception: it has been too silent on Rwandan and Ugandan intervention in the eastern Congo. Too often an assessment of an administration’s Africa policy is based on a numbers game, how many visits an American president and a secretary of state have made to the continent, how many African heads of state have visited the White House. This volume is an important corrective to the view that somehow the Obama administration has "ignored" Africa.
  • Human Rights
    Standing Up to...Senegal
    In today’s Washington Post, Fred Hiatt notes that Vice President Biden chose not to mention human rights matters when he faced the press alongside the Chinese leader Xi Jinping this week. Hiatt’s column is about human rights and he criticizes Biden for raising the matter only in private: After Vice President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met on Wednesday, they both, in short statements to reporters in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, hailed the prospect of what Biden called a “new model of major-country cooperation.” Later, a senior Obama administration official briefed reporters on the subjects they covered during 5½ hours of talks: “They spent a good amount of time . . .stepping back to look at the overall bilateral relationship and its complexities. . . . They spent a substantial amount of time on North Korea. . . . They obviously spoke about the air defense identification zone and about the broader regional issues. . . . They had an extensive conversation on economics. . . . They talked about climate and clean energy. . . . And then they, over dinner, had more esoteric conversations about politics and history and governance.” The official concluded: “So that’s — am I missing any significant issues?” As it happens, Danielle Wang could have suggested one. Wang has not seen her father since Chinese police dragged him from his bed early one morning in July 1999 and imprisoned him for “the peaceful practice of Falun Dafa,” she told me, referring to a spiritual group that the Chinese Communist Party finds threatening.... Like the other daughters, Ti-Anna Wang was clear on her goals: China should honor its laws and respect its people’s human rights; their fathers should be freed; and President Obama should do more to press for that result. “His personal intervention is our fathers’ best chance of freedom,” she said. U.S. officials said Thursday that Biden did raise human rights during his meetings with Xi and other officials, even if he chose not to discomfit Xi by mentioning the subject when they faced the press, and even if it did not come up in the readout to reporters. This criticism is fair, and is especially fair in view of a remark made this week by National security Adviser Susan Rice in a speech about human rights: No one–no one--should face discrimination because of who they are or whom they love.  So, we are working to lead internationally, as we have domestically, on LGBT issues.  This summer, President Obama championed equal treatment for LGBT persons while standing next to the President of Senegal, a country that is making progress on democratic reforms, but like too many nations, still places criminal restrictions on homosexuality. Does Rice actually seek to present this as a profile in courage?  So it seems. The administration kowtows to China, but courageously stands up to Senegal. It’s bad enough to do this, and in a way even worse to seek credit for it as Rice did in this speech.    
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
    President Obama in Africa: Nelson Mandela’s Illness
    President Obama met Nelson Mandela in 2005, when he was a senator from Illinois and speaks of him with glowing terms. Many Africans and Americans had hoped that the president’s trip to Africa would provide an opportunity for the first American president of African descent to meet with the iconic hero of the anti-apartheid struggle. Under these circumstances Nelson Mandela’s apparently rapidly deteriorating health poses particular challenges for the American president. There is speculation in the American and African media that should Mandela die in the next few days, it would overshadow the president’s first significant Africa trip. From the first, the Obama team has been commendably sensitive. Spokespeople of Obama’s trip have said that President Obama would follow the wishes of the Mandela family with respect to any meeting between the two presidents, it is uncertain whether a visit will be possible. Upon his arrival in Senegal, President Obama recalled Mandela’s great contributions to Africa and to the cause of non-racial democracy. He said Mandela is in the Obamas’ prayers. When he is in Cape Town, President Obama is scheduled to visit Robben Island, the site of Mandela’s long imprisonment under apartheid, and he is visiting a community health center with Archbishop Desmond Tutu, perhaps the second most iconic figure after Mandela of the anti-apartheid struggle. The Obama team’s restraint has been in contrast to a media circus around the former South African president’s hospitalization that is grating on many South Africans. According to the media, Mandela’s hospital is now surrounded by armed guards, and large numbers of well-wishers are leaving notes and tributes along the perimeter. President Obama travels to South Africa the evening of June 28, with the formal arrival ceremony in Pretoria the morning of June 29.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
    President Obama in Africa: Senegal
    Senegal has never had a military coup, and the opposition won last year’s presidential election. It is also a predominately Muslim nation. President Obama arrived in Senegal the evening of June 26. At a joint press conference with Senegal’s president, Macky Sall, President Obama praised the country’s democracy and the rule of law. The president also publicly affirmed his support for gay rights; Senegal’s president responded that his country is not yet ready to decriminalize homosexuality. Obama also highlighted food security at a meeting with private sector and regional agricultural leaders. The two first ladies visited a middle school named for Martin Luther King. The Obama family made the mandatory visit to the “Door of No Return” on Goree Island, now a monument to the victims of the Atlantic slave trade. Senegal has been a good start to the president’s Africa trip from the perspective of public messaging and engagement with African elites. The stop also had a useful Francophone regional focus when the president met with regional judicial leaders. Dakar is essentially locked down for the presidential visit. Business has all but ceased. As is often the case with presidential visits abroad, there is public resentment at the seemingly overpowering U.S. security presence, including restrictions on movement around the city. Complaints have been publicized in Dakar’s free press. They are not much different from New Yorkers’ complaints about the disruption caused each year by the opening of the UN General Assembly. In Dakar, the grousing is most common among non-elites, who face the greatest disruption in their daily lives and have little or no access to the excitement of a presidential visit. Elites, on the other hand, are minimally inconvenienced, and a few of them are actual participants in the presidential visit.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
    The United States and Drug Trafficking in Guinea-Bissau
    This is a guest post by Kyle Benjamin Schneps; a dual master’s degree candidate at Columbia University and junior fellow at the Institute for Strategic Studies in Dakar, Senegal. On 2 April 2013, Jose Americo Bubo Na Tchuto was arrested by the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) in international waters off the coast of West Africa. He was arrested for his role in a transatlantic narco-trafficking operation in which he agreed to receive, store, and ship thousands of kilos of cocaine in exchange for millions of dollars and a cut of the product. Moreover, he agreed to this arrangement with DEA informants who were posing as members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Columbia (FARC), a guerilla organization classified as terrorists by the U.S. government. Mr. Na Tchuto is the former chief of the Guinea-Bissau Navy and a lauded veteran of his nation’s war of independence against Portugal. Since gaining independence in 1974, the tropical nation of Guinea-Bissau has devolved into a narco-state where a perpetual cycle of coups, desperate poverty, and a countless array of natural inlets and islands make it a drug trafficking hub for South American syndicates. The latest coup, on 12 April 2012, placed the country under the de facto control of the military leader, Antonio Indjai, despite his perfunctory concession to a transitional civilian leadership. A recent U.S. Department of State assessment reports that serious human rights abuses afflict the country, including “arbitrary killings and detentions; official corruption, exacerbated by government officials’ impunity and suspected involvement in drug trafficking; and a lack of respect for the rights of citizens to elect their government.” The Na Tchuto sting may be indicative of the expanding U.S. drug enforcement presence in West Africa. U.S. counter-narcotic assistance for the region has soared from U.S. $7.5 million in 2009, to $50 million in 2012. The United States is currently funding and training elite counter-narcotic police forces in Ghana, Nigeria, and Kenya. Additionally, the U.S. government has been increasing its military and intelligence capabilities in West Africa. In early 2013, the U.S. Air Force finalized an agreement with the government of Niger to conduct drone operations from a new U.S. base in the country. The operations aim to collect intelligence on terrorist activity and illicit trafficking in the region, two issues that are often interrelated. With respect to Guinea-Bissau—considered the most central link between South American cocaine and the European market—the United States has no diplomatic presence in-country and has terminated all foreign assistance due to Indjai’s illegitimate takeover of power. This lack of presence could prove detrimental to U.S. intelligence collection, especially considering the large Lebanese community in the country and its proven financial ties to Hezbollah. In Guinea-Bissau, the United States continues to be a global policeman and leader, promoting the democratic ideal in places where elections may be a distant consideration to the prospect of affording the next meal.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
    Senegal’s Elections are Good News
    A week following the dark news of a military coup in Mali, Senegal’s presidential runoff is profoundly encouraging for African democrats. Incumbent president Abdoulaye Wade has conceded to, and congratulated, opposition candidate Macky Sall following the March 25 presidential runoff. The press reports that the elections were calm. Though election observers have yet to comment, based on press reports their findings are likely to be favorable. Macky Sall, a long-time politician, campaigned on a platform of economic reform and improved service delivery. President Wade’s effort to manipulate the constitution so that he could run for a third term was widely resented and probably contributed to Sall’s victory. Senegal is relatively close to Europe and to the U.S. With its splendid beaches, its elegant capital city of Dakar, and its fame as the home of supermodels, the country is popular with Western, especially European tourists. Yet, it shares many or most of the developmental challenges of its neighbors and also has some that are largely unique. For example, there is an informal mining sector with few protections for workers that serves as a magnet for workers from its poorer neighbors. Dakar was designed by the French to be the capital of its enormous empire, French West Africa, rather than of a relatively small state. Yet, ever since independence in 1960, Senegal has chosen the democratic approach to its politics, and it has never been disfigured by a military coup. The presidential elections of 2012 show that fifty-one years of credible elections and strengthening political institutions has deeply rooted a democratic culture.
  • Human Rights
    Bravo Senegal!
    Yesterday Senegal went to the polls and struck a powerful blow on behalf of democracy in Africa and in the Islamic world. President Abdoulaye Wade has held power for twelve years, and changed the constitution to permit himself to run for another term. But giving credit where it is due, he did not award himself another term; he gave himself another chance. The people of Senegal went to the polls on February 26 in the first round of elections and denied Wade the majority he needed to escape a far more difficult second round. That round occurred yesterday (March 25) and, with all his opponents uniting behind former prime minister Macky Sall, Wade was defeated. By 9:30 in the evening Wade called Sall and conceded. Wade entered politics as a reformer and opponent of the entrenched power elite, and it is good to see that he will leave office with this legacy of strengthened democracy. A military coup in Mali just a few days ago showed African democracy to be under threat, and the results in Senegal are cheering. In our last presidential election the turnout was 56.8 percent and that was viewed as very high for the United States. In Senegal’s first round in February, turnout was 60 percent. Senegal is a poor country (GDP per capita around one thousand dollars), 90 percent Muslim, with a literacy rate around fifty percent. Those data are a reminder that democracy is not limited to rich nations and that the desire for it is found among the poor as well.  
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
    Senegal’s Presidential Runoff
    In a previous blog, I stated that the date of Senegal’s presidential runoff would be Sunday, March 18. This is only partially incorrect; civilians will vote on March 25. But President Wade allowed Senegal’s military to vote in national elections for the first time since independence in 2007, so they voted on Sunday, a week in advance of the civilians. Extending the right to vote to the military was certainly a democratic initiative. But Wade has favored the military, offering a concessionary housing scheme, for example. Many Senegalese see them as favorable to the incumbent president. So, by doing right to the military, Wade might have been doing himself good in the presidential runoff. However, it is unclear whether the military vote will be significant. The press estimated that up to 23,000 military might have voted over March 17 and 18. If the runoff were very close, a strong military vote could give Wade an advantage over his presidential rival, Macky Sall. But, again according to the press, the military voter turn out was very low. At present it is hard to see how the military vote could swing the election to Wade. I continue to think Macky Sall’s chances are good, though the runoff date will be March 25 rather than March 18 as I had earlier said.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
    Will Wade Be Humiliated in the Senegal Presidential Run-off?
    Senegal’s constitution requires that a presidential candidate receive fifty percent of the total votes or face a run-off. Incumbent president Abdoulaye Wade received only thirty-five percent of the vote in the February 26 presidential election, while his chief opposition, Macky Sall, received twenty-six percent. (There were numerous other candidates.) Only about half of the electorate voted, compared with more than seventy percent in the 2007 elections. There will be a run-off between Wade and Sall on March 18. Unlike the case of Cote d’Ivoire’s Laurent Gbagbo, Wade’s people have said that he will accept the results of the run-off. He probably will; Senegal is not as internally divided as Cote d’Ivoire, where rival presidential candidates represented profound ethnic, social and economic divisions. Senegal’s democratic institutions, while by no means perfect, are also among the strongest in sub-Saharan Africa. Chatham House has published a succinct analysis of the electoral strengths and weaknesses of both run-off candidates. Its bottom line: even with the powers of the incumbency, there is a good chance Wade could be defeated. As Chatham House says, many Senegalese are angry that Wade has manipulated the constitution (of which he is the principal author) so that he could run for a third term. African leaders struggling to remain in office even when there are term limits is an old and sad song. Nevertheless, Wade is at least 85 years of age, and one Kenyan newspaper speculates he is closer to ninety. Why is he risking the humiliation of defeat? To me the most credible explanation is that he is trying to engineer the eventual succession to the presidency of his son, Karim, whom he has promoted to various government posts. Wade attempted to create the office of vice president, which many Senegalese think he intended for Karim. This was not popular, and Wade failed. Macky Sall, on the other hand, has cultivated the grassroots and is popular in Dakar. As a former prime minister and president of the National Assembly, he is a credible presidential candidate that is fifty years of age--neither too young nor too old. Given the immense power of the incumbency in most African countries and Wade’s political skills, Chatham House is right to caution that he might yet win. But, if I were a betting man, I would put my money on Sall. We will see on Sunday.
  • Iran
    This Week’s Elections
    The elections this week—February 27 in Senegal, March 2 in Iran, and March 4 in Russia—are reminders of the key role elections play in building democracy. It has been fashionable for years to say “elections don’t mean democracy” or “elections should come at the end of the road, when democracy is firmly built.” Of course elections are only part of a truly democratic system, which must also include critical building blocks like freedom of expression and the rule of law. And of course elections held in a non-democratic system and run by a non-democratic regime will be highly imperfect and often flatly fraudulent. But the events of this week show that elections can still unseat those in power or dramatically highlight the nature of the ruling party and leaders. In Senegal, President Wade forced a change in the constitution so that he could run for office a third time. No doubt he was sure that, using the power of the state, he could pull off a first round win. He failed, falling short of the 50 percent needed, and is likely now to lose office to a unified opposition in the second round. Senegal, a Muslim nation with a per capita income of only about $1,000 per year and a literacy rate of roughly 60 percent, is a reminder of the lure of democracy and self-rule across the globe. In Iran, the parliamentary election appears to mark the continuing decline of self-rule in favor of rule by the mullahs and their allies in the Revolutionary Guards. The balance between elected officials and the clergy, theoretically a key part of Iran’s system, has been shifting for years and of course moved greatly after the stolen elections of June 2009 and the crushing of the Green Movement. Candidates for parliament must be approved by the regime, and reformists have been sidelined. But that does not mean this sham election is without impact, for it can only deepen the gulf between rulers and ruled. Some day, when this regime has fallen, the repeated exercise of holding such elections—essentially, of rubbing the noses of millions of Iranians in their country’s political backwardness and lack of freedom—will be seen as a cause. In Russia, Sunday’s election is part coronation of Vladimir Putin, but also a turning point for his corrupt system. The cynicism of his pirouette with Medvedev, a maneuver that entirely excluded the Russian people from any real role in choosing their government, has been widely understood inside Russia as well as outside it. Recent months have seen a rebirth of popular protest against autocratic rule. As in Iran, this election dramatizes for citizens the ways in which Russia is not a democracy, the voter has no control over the government, and the nation continues to fall far short of the standards of decent, open, responsive government. What can Russians think of their country, what can they think of those who claim the right to rule it so that it can “advance,” when citizens of Senegal can vote in free elections but they in Russia cannot? As skeptics rightly say, elections do not democracy make. But the opportunity to vote, and often the denial of an opportunity to vote or the necessity of voting in sham elections, can be mobilizing events. In a world where hundreds of free elections are held each year, often with elaborate safeguards and the presence of international observers, the failure to hold free elections is a mark of shame visible around the globe and more importantly to citizens denied a role in choosing their government.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
    Senegal’s Wade Struggles to Hold Power
    Normally placid, elegant Dakar is roiled by pre-election demonstrations. The issue is President Abdoulaye Wade’s apparently desperate attempt to hang on to presidential power via a third term bid this weekend. Wade claims his re-election would be legal under the frequently revised (by Wade) constitution. The Constitutional Council has ruled that his first term does not count because the two-term limit law was introduced after his first term began. His opponents have objected to the decision. Former Nigeria President Olusegun Obasanjo, as head of an African Union observer mission, has gone to Dakar, apparently to try to persuade Wade to step down. Thus far, Wade has refused. So, the stage appears to be set for a contested election this weekend – Wade (like Gbagbo in Ivory Coast) almost certainly has more popular support than outsiders estimate. If he does win, extensive court challenges seem inevitable. Wade is at least 85 years of age, and probably older. Why does he want to hang on to power? Certainly he is not unusual among African chiefs of state who seek to remain in office. Obasanjo, for example, sought – but failed – to gain the ruling party’s nomination for a third term as Nigeria’s president in 2006; he was stymied because of a rare coming together of Nigerian opinion against a third term. Perhaps that makes him especially qualified to try to persuade Wade to go. Mo Ibrahim, the Sudanese billionaire based in London, has tried to encourage African chiefs of state to leave office as required by their respective constitutions. His Mo Ibrahim prize consists of $5 million over ten years and $200,000 per year for life thereafter, in effect relieving a retiring chief of state of any reasonable financial requirements. Yet, in 2009 and 2010, the prize committee was unable to find an eligible winner, finally awarding it to Cape Verde’s former president Pedro Pires last year. The politics of Sub-Saharan Africa’s fifty-plus states resist generalization. But, in too many politics is winner-take-all and is shaped by patron-client networks that make it difficult for a chief of state to relinquish power once he has it. Such governance issues –with many computations and variations – remain a significant barrier to genuine, sustainable development.
  • Wars and Conflict
    Guest Post: Reflections on West Africa
    Supporters attend the launch of Senegal's controversial African Renaissance statue, April 3, 2010. (Eve Coulon/Courtesy Reuters) This is a guest post by Mohamed Jallow. He is an interdepartmental associate at the Council on Foreign Relations and graduate of the CUNY Colin Powell Center for Policy Studies. Mohamed came to the United States as a refugee from Sierra Leone in 2003. I recently returned from a three-country tour of West Africa. It was my first trip back since I left in 1999, when the Charles Taylor-backed Revolutionary United Front (RUF) invaded my home of Freetown, Sierra Leone. My recent trip took me to the Gambia via Senegal, and then to Sierra Leone, marking an emotional and exhilarating homecoming. Much more than that, the trip was an opportunity to reacquaint myself with the struggles of a continent I hold dear and to assess the changes that have taken place since I left. My first destination was Dakar, Senegal, where in 2003 I boarded a Tap Air Portugal flight to the United States after fleeing the madness in Sierra Leone. At the Dakar airport where the imposing African Renaissance Monument greets visitors from a mountaintop overlooking the capital, one gets the feeling of a continent and a country on the move. This country was and still is regarded as one of the few outposts of tranquility in a tumultuous region. While recent political issues regarding presidential succession and an economic crisis fueled by the global economic downturn have threatened that stability, these problems, from my initial assessment, appear to have been averted, and the economy is slowly growing again. Businesses are flocking to the country, and it has since replaced Ivory Coast as the economic hub of West Africa. After a few days in Dakar, and a spine bending road trip through Senegal’s countryside, my next stop was neighboring Gambia, the smallest country on mainland Africa, dubbed the “Smiling Coast.” My initial impressions of the Gambia were how I imagined 1950s Stalin Russia, with pictures of the president everywhere. Back in 2002-2003 when I lived here, the Gambia was an insignificant outpost better known as a cheaper Caribbean for European tourists. Today, the country is a different place despite its share of governance issues. I could see noticeable improvements in infrastructure and the economy for a country that once boasted only one paved road, and an economy dependent on peanuts and foreign aid. The sheer number of cell phone companies and foreign banks competing in this tiny economy shows just how far the country has come from less than a decade ago. Sierra Leone was the last stop on my trip. My most recent memory of Sierra Leone was being holed up in a corridor at home during intense fighting between RUF rebels and Nigerian soldiers acting under the umbrella of the Economic Community of West African States Monitoring Group (ECOMOG). Since fighting ended in 2002, Sierra Leone has begun to recover, so much that I could hardly notice the physical scars of the war. Spending for development and anti-poverty measures has dramatically increased, evident through improved roads, schools, and health care facilities. Corruption is down and economic activity is booming again. While Sierra Leone continues to rely on foreign assistance, the country is indeed making progress towards self-sufficiency, and I could see that in the enterprising spirit of the people. Besides the good food and spoiling attention I received from family and friends, this visit was a real eye opener. While there is still the poverty, corruption, and political issues, these countries are no longer stagnant as they had been when I left them a decade ago. They are making considerable strides both economically and politically. The people in all these countries seem to have realized that their destiny should be to make their own countries better so people like me won’t have to leave.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
    Unrest in Senegal
    Opposition supporters attend a rally in Senegal's capital Dakar, July 23, 2011. (Finbar O'Reilly/Courtesy Reuters) Kate Collins, a special assistant here at CFR, has written about the recent unrest in Senegal. Initially, protests were sparked on June 23 by octogenarian president Abdoulaye Wade’s attempt to change the constitution so that a candidate could win with only 25 percent of the vote (as opposed to requiring a runoff) if his total was higher than that of any other candidate. The amended constitution would also establish the office of vice president in which, according to the BBC, Wade would likely try to install his son. While Wade has subsequently backed away from amending the constitution, this Saturday protesters gathered again to oppose his announcement that he would seek a third term. The constitution allows for only two terms, but Wade and others have argued he can run for a third term because he was elected before the constitution establishing term limits was put in place. At the same time, “backers” of Wade gathered to show their support for the president. Reuters quoted one attendee as saying that he had been promised payment for attending the rally. Senegal is often considered a West African success for it relative stability and the peaceful democratic transfer of power to Wade in 2000. Unfortunately, eighty-five year old Wade’s quest for a third term, and rumors about Wade’s desire for his son to lead the country, do not bode well for the orderly and democratic transfer of executive authority. Read Kate’s article here.