Civil War in Myanmar
Four years after the junta’s 2021 coup, Myanmar’s military government controls only 21 percent of the country’s territory, while rebel forces and ethnic armies hold 42 percent, according to a 2024 investigation by the BBC. The People’s Defense Force (PDF) and its allies continue gaining key territory, pushing the military on the defensive in the Bamar heartland and advancing towards Mandalay. The military junta especially struggles to fight ethnic armed organizations across the country, which have made most of the territorial gains so far. The United Nations has reported that the conflict has displaced over three million civilians and resulted in more than seventy-five thousand total deaths.
Background
Since gaining independence from British rule in 1948, Myanmar (formerly known as Burma) has struggled to govern its multiethnic society effectively. Following a coup in 1962, Myanmar’s military junta has primarily held control of the country, engaging in conflicts with ethnic minority groups fighting for greater autonomy.
These ongoing tensions have their roots in the country’s complex ethnic makeup and the legacy of British colonial rule, which exacerbated divisions among different communities. The conflicts have resulted in widespread human rights abuses, displacement of civilians, and persistent instability across many regions of Myanmar.
In 1990, Myanmar held its first general election since the 1962 military coup. The National League for Democracy (NLD), led by Aung San Suu Kyi, won by a landslide. Suu Kyi, the daughter of the nationalist leader who fought for Burma’s independence and the most prominent democratic activist, was placed under house arrest by the junta before the vote. After the election, the junta refused to recognize the results.
The NLD’s success in the 1990 election made the junta realize its limited support among the populace. To maintain its grip on power, the junta embarked on a decades-long process to enshrine military rule through what it called “disciplined democracy” or a “roadmap to democracy,” which included drafting a new constitution in 2008. The constitution reserved significant power for the military, including control over important ministries and 25 percent of parliamentary seats, effectively granting it veto power over amendments. This approach allowed for limited reforms but ensured the military’s continued influence.
Under the junta’s roadmap, the government held general elections in November 2010. In the leadup to the vote, the junta passed new election laws that prohibited anyone serving a prison sentence or married to a foreign national from running for president—a clear attempt to block Suu Kyi from the ballot, who was still under house arrest and married to a British citizen. The NLD decided to boycott the elections, and the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) won.
In 2015, the NLD returned to participate in general elections, with Suu Kyi unofficially leading the party. The NLD won Myanmar’s first competitive national election in over twenty-five years. Due to the revised election laws, Suu Kyi could not officially become president but became de facto leader as State Counsellor. The NLD entered a power-sharing arrangement with the military according to the 2008 constitution, leading a civilian parliament while the military continued to control crucial executive ministries and oversee security policy.
Despite her reputation as a democratic icon, Suu Kyi lost international support as her NLD government defended the military’s ethnic cleansing against Myanmar’s Rohingya people, a Muslim ethnic minority group of one million. The Rohingya live in western Myanmar’s Rakhine state, which borders present-day Bangladesh. The Rohingya have long faced persecution from the ethnic Bamar majority, who often call them “Bengali” to discredit their right to live in Myanmar. Myanmar’s government asserts that the Rohingya did not settle in historic Burma before British rule began in 1823. This criterion determined which groups are considered “indigenous ethnic” within the 1982 Citizenship Law. Thus, Rohingya are not considered citizens by Myanmar’s government, making them the largest stateless population in the world.
Tensions between Buddhist and Muslim communities in Myanmar’s Rakhine State escalated dramatically after a series of Rohingya militant attacks in October 2016 and August 2017. These attacks on military and police outposts, led by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, killed twelve Burmese security forces personnel in total. In both years, the military responded with brutal crackdowns on Rohingya villages, causing at least 6,700 deaths between August and September 2017 and forcing over 700,000 people to flee across the border to Bangladesh. Widespread reports indicate indiscriminate killings and burning of Rohingya villages, with the UN Human Rights Commissioner calling the situation in Rakhine State “a textbook example of ethnic cleansing.” Since 2017, living conditions for the more than one million Rohingya across the border in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, have continued to deteriorate.
In November 2020, the NLD won the general election again by a large margin. The military contested the results as fraudulent, sensing the continued democratic success of the NLD posed a long-term threat to its rule. In early February 2021, Myanmar’s military carried out a coup, detaining senior leadership of the democratically-elected government, including de facto head of state Suu Kyi, and forcing other members of parliament into hiding. After seizing power, General Min Aung Hlaing, the leader of the military junta, instituted a year-long state of emergency.
Protests immediately broke out in the capital, Naypyidaw, demanding the restoration of civilian rule and democratic governance. In response, security forces employed lethal force, killing more than six hundred people. The military junta also instituted curfews and other limitations on gatherings to curb the demonstrations. Doubling down, the military launched violent campaigns across the country, targeting resistance villages, and silencing and torturing dissenters, displacing thousands in the process.
As international condemnation amplified, an opposition force of ousted officials, oppressed ethnic groups, and pro-democracy protestors united to form the National Unity Government (NUG) in April 2021. The NUG publicly states its goal of governing Myanmar as a “federal democratic union.” Shortly after, the new coalition formed the People’s Defense Force (PDF)—an armed wing to fight the junta and its allied forces.
As the junta repressed protests, popular support for the democratic resistance movement grew: in 2022, the PDF claimed 65,000 fighters, which rose to 85,000 soldiers in 2024. Rebel ethnic groups across the country’s states have played a critical role in strengthening the PDF’s efforts, with a common goal of pushing military forces back from local villages. Several of the twenty-five active ethnic armies coordinate with the pro-democracy forces, including the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Shan State Army, and Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA).
In late October 2023, a coalition of three ethnic armed groups in Shan State launched a coordinated offensive—named Operation 1027, for the date the offensive commenced—against the junta. Known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance, this coalition consists of the Arakan Army (AA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA). Initially formed in 2019, the group’s 2023 coordinated offensive posed the strongest challenge to military rule since the February 2021 coup. Insurgents used drones to bomb military and police outposts in eastern Kayah State, bordering Thailand; western Rakhine State, bordering India; and northern Shan State, bordering China. By the end of 2023, the offensive captured over 180 military outposts in Shan State.
The military continues to leverage its technological advantages, many of which are granted by foreign suppliers like Russia and China, to fight armed opposition groups. However, waning morale has hindered military cohesion. Military forces have dwindled from the start of the civil war, with only approximately 130,000 soldiers remaining from a collective of 300,000 in 2021.
Recent Developments
While the military still possesses technological superiority, its forces have not been effective in countering rebel offensives. It has lost critical infrastructure and townships, and the country is experiencing significant economic pressures and high rates of food insecurity. The military resorted to forced conscription in February 2024 to address its manpower shortage. Since then, the military has conscripted about thirty thousand people, prompting an exodus of young people fleeing Myanmar’s cities.
In August 2024, the Three Brotherhood Alliance seized the Northeastern Regional Military Command (RMC) in Lashio—a key military headquarters and economic access point to China. Lashio remains under MNDAA control, though fears persist in the city over the MNDAA’s imposition of martial law and rumors of forced conscription.
In December 2024, fighting in the city of Maungdaw in Rakhine State ended with victory for the Arakan Army, an ethnic Buddhist militant group. With the Arakan Army taking control of villages and townships in the state, local minority groups, such as the Rohingya, fear continued ethnic persecution.
Throughout the conflict, both domestic and international support for the NUG has risen. A 2024 survey revealed that around 93 percent of respondents in Myanmar have a favorable opinion of the NUG. In January 2025, the junta announced plans for general elections by the end of the year or early 2026 to consolidate political control. Observers fear elections could lead to more violence. The junta also extended its state of emergency by six months.
China has steadily increased its involvement in the conflict, seeking an end to the fighting to preserve the military junta and ensure stability. Beijing has brokered several ceasefires, with mixed results and temporary truces. China’s economic interests in Myanmar include critical minerals, oil and gas, and BRI infrastructure projects. Myanmar also provides deep-sea port access and a key alternative to the Strait of Malacca trade route. Though China continues to provide military support to the junta, it also maintains relations with the NLD.
Myanmar Resistance Group Detains Election Candidate
The detention, executed by the People’s Defense Force, occurred in the Magway Region and marked the first known abduction of a candidate in the cycle for this month’s election; the ruling junta has vowed to prosecute the abductors, though concerns surrounding the military’s own political repression remain (AP).
Mass Amnesty in Myanmar
Myanmar’s ruling generals authorized the release of several thousand people detained for political activity and dropped charges against thousands more as the country prepares for elections scheduled for late December; the move excluded ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi and other former senior civilian officials, as rights groups continue to condemn the elections as a junta power grab (AP).
TPS Cut for Myanmar
The Trump administration announced it will end temporary protected status for migrants from Myanmar in late January; the protection had been granted in 2021 due to unsafe conditions in the country and extended multiple times, but U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said that conditions in the country had “improved enough” (DHS). Myanmar remains torn by civil war; some four thousand people are expected to lose protection from deportation (CBS).
Junta Crackdown on Border Scam Compounds
Sources say junta leader Min Aung Hlaing instructed officers to dismantle scam center operations ahead of December’s election, amid growing concern over potential U.S. action and pressure from Beijing; state media reported that security forces and allied Karen National Army units have demolished more than 180 buildings, detained over 1,000 foreign nationals, and seized thousands of devices (Reuters).
Fighting Escalates in Rakhine State
Clashes around Kyaukphyu have widened sharply following junta attempts to retake key positions ahead of the December elections; heavy junta airstrikes have caused the displacement of tens of thousands and several civilian casualties, though the rebel Arakan Army has regained territory (Irrawaddy).
Rebel Ambush Kills Thirty Junta Troops
Local sources said the Arakan Army killed the troops near Minpyin village in Kyaukphyu after regime forces advanced into the key township; fighting in the area has surged following the junta’s seizure of the Thaing Chaung Taung base on November 10, displacing large numbers of civilians and restricting the movement of goods and aid (Irrawaddy).
Resistance Forces Kill Dozens of Junta Fighters
Resistance groups captured another fifteen fighters, following a major ambush on a military column moving between Kantbalu and Khin-U; the junta responded with bombing runs and airstrikes, forcing thousands of civilians to flee nearby villages as fighting spread across the border area (Irrawaddy).
Sino-Russo Support for Myanmar
The junta received Russian helicopters and Chinese transport planes, underscoring continued weapons transfers from both countries despite Western arms sanctions; regional analysts said the expanded air assets will bolster upcoming operations as the military seeks to retake territory ahead of December’s planned elections (AP). United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk again denounced these elections, citing the junta’s political repression and the ongoing military conflict (AFP). Separately, the U.S. Treasury sanctioned the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army, along with businesses linked to the group, accusing them of fueling the ongoing civil war and stealing billions of dollars via online scams (U.S. Treasury).
Junta Election Crackdown
Myanmar’s military detained seven more people under its recent election law as it represses dissent ahead of the December elections; charges have been filed for alleged attacks on campaign billboards, confrontations with poll workers, and message sharing with resistance groups (Irrawaddy).
UN Condemns Myanmar Election
UN Special Rapporteur Tom Andrews asked governments to denounce the upcoming vote, citing the junta’s political crackdowns and media restrictions; he also warned that sending observers would help legitimize the regime (Irrawaddy).
China Mediates Myanmar Ceasefire
The Ta’ang National Liberation Army agreed to halt fighting and withdraw from several strategic towns near the Chinese border after talks in Kunming, while the junta pledged to stop ground offensives and airstrikes against remaining rebel-held areas; the deal bolsters the military ahead of contested December elections and reflects China’s efforts to minimize instability along its frontier (AP).
Junta Sets Second Round for Elections
The second round of voting will include one hundred towns and take place on January 11, two weeks after the first round on December 28, even as international observers and opposition parties continue to criticize the elections as a sham (Reuters).
Junta Rallies Ahead of Elections
Election campaigning began in Myanmar two months before a national vote widely viewed as an attempt to legitimize the 2021 military coup, as UN Secretary-General António Guterres reiterated in a meeting with Southeast Asian nations; the junta-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party held several ceremonies as part of the electoral campaigning, though armed resistance groups continue vowing to challenge the vote (Al Jazeera).
ASEAN Declines to Send Observers for Myanmar Election
Officials said the regional bloc will not deploy monitors to the December polls, dealing a blow to the junta’s bid to portray the elections as legitimate, though individual ASEAN states may still send observers bilaterally (AFP).
Malaysia Reiterates Demands on Junta
Ahead of an ASEAN summit, Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan suggested that the junta government should honor the Five-Point Consensus plan by permitting humanitarian aid and engaging in dialogue; he also repeated the ASEAN demand for the December elections to be free and fair, even as he indicated the bloc could not stop them (Reuters).
Junta Bans Election Rallies
The junta-controlled Union Election Commission ordered the ban, limiting election campaigns to pre-approved indoor speeches under military supervision; opposition parties said they would campaign online despite internet blackouts, as the regime tightens control ahead of the December elections (Irrawaddy). Meanwhile, pro-junta media outlets circulated false claims that junta chief Min Aung Hlaing would attend the upcoming ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur; Malaysian officials dismissed the reports and suggested that the ban on junta attendance, in effect since 2021, remains unchanged (Irrawaddy).
Junta Raids Cybercrime Hub
The junta shut down the KK Park scam complex near the Thai border, arresting more than two thousand suspects and seizing thirty Starlink terminals used for online fraud and gambling operations linked to cross-border criminal networks (AP).
EU Reiterates Condemnations of Planned Myanmar Elections
European Union Human Rights Commissioner Kajsa Ollongren said Brussels will not send observers to Myanmar’s December elections, calling the vote illegitimate and urging Southeast Asian nations to press the junta toward dialogue and genuine democratic transition (AFP).
Junta Suggests December Election Will Not Be Nationwide
The junta chief cited the ongoing civil war to justify the decision and suggested the vote would instead proceed only in select areas, with by-elections planned later; the junta has invited observers from Southeast Asia, though only six parties currently meet strict eligibility requirements (Reuters).
Malaysia to Send Observers for December Elections
Myanmar’s state media made the announcement following talks between Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan and junta leader Min Aung Hlaing; Hassan reaffirmed that the elections should be conducted fairly, as observers continue to dismiss them as an attempt to legitimize military rule (Reuters).
Junta Airstrike Kills Dozens at Buddhist Festival
Military paragliders struck a candlelight vigil in Sagaing on the Full Moon Day of Thadingyut, killing at least thirty-two people, including children, and injuring more than fifty; the junta also struck areas held by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army in northern Shan State (Irrawaddy).
Political Crackdown Continues Under Junta
The Irrawaddy reported that the junta has prosecuted sixty-four people since July under its new Election Protection Law, which punishes opposing the planned December elections with sentences of up to death; rights groups say the crackdown aims to quash dissent (Irrawaddy).
Junta Secures Kyaukme
Myanmar’s military recaptured Kyaukme in Shan State, launching clearance operations within a five-mile radius of the town and ordering civil servants to return within three days; the assault on Kyaukme, launched on August 19, is part of an effort to secure National Highway 3, which links Mandalay to the China border (Irrawaddy).
Myanmar Military Recaptures Key Town
The military said it retook Kyaukme, a strategic district capital on a China-linked trade route in Shan State, more than a year after it fell to the Ta’ang National Liberation Army; the capture follows weeks of ground assaults and airstrikes as the junta seeks to reclaim further rebel-held areas ahead of planned December elections (AP).
Rohingya Leaders Plead for Protection at UN
At the first UN high-level meeting on the Rohingya crisis, activists urged world leaders to stop ongoing mass killings against Myanmar’s persecuted Muslim minority, suggesting that decades of rhetorical statements have brought no real action and instead calling for a UN-supervised safe zone in northern Rakhine (AP).
Junta Airstrikes Kill Dozens
Junta airstrikes killed at least thirty-four civilians from September 26 to 29, targeting areas in Bago, Chin, Magwe, Kachin, and other states; armed resistance camps were also targeted, with fourteen fighters killed in Mandalay and three in Magwe (Irrawaddy).
Report Says Myanmar Army Demolished Rohingya Villages
The UN-backed report says the crackdown, which occurred in 2017, was aimed at clearing land to build security outposts, with private firms allegedly supporting the effort under state contracts; the report comes as 1.3 million Rohingya remain in camps in Bangladesh (Reuters).
Min Aung Hlaing Meets Putin in Moscow
Russian President Vladimir Putin met Myanmar’s junta leader Min Aung Hlaing in Moscow to discuss cooperation in defense, energy, and investment, as the junta seeks closer ties with Russia and China to counter Western sanctions (Bloomberg).
Junta Airstrike Kills At least Seventeen in Kachin State
Military aircraft bombed a Kachin Independence Army position in Shwegu Township, with local outlets reporting at least seventeen killed and dozens wounded; the strike follows intensified regime air campaigns since August (Irrawaddy).
ASEAN Ministers Cancel Myanmar Visit
After junta chief Min Aung Hlaing declined to meet them, foreign ministers from Malaysia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand called off a planned trip to Myanmar aimed at discussing the December elections (Irrawaddy).
Junta Airstrike on Myanmar Boarding School Kills Nineteen Students
An ethnic militia said a military strike in Rakhine’s Kyauktaw Township killed nineteen students, while UNICEF condemned the attack as part of spiraling violence that has seen nearly five hundred airstrikes nationwide in the past month (Reuters).
Junta Dissolves Four Political Parties Ahead of Elections
The junta-controlled Union Election Commission disbanded the National Democratic Force and three smaller parties, citing failure to meet membership and office requirements; critics said the move further narrows space for the opposition before the December elections (Mizzima).