Council on Foreign Relations

Carlos Barria/Reuters

A New Era of Trade Tensions

President Trump has announced the most sweeping new tariffs on all imports to the United States in decades. But how the administration is calculating reciprocal tariff rates remains unclear.

Article by Allison J. Smith and Matthew P. Goodman March 28, 2025 RealEcon

Trade

The Washington Consensus Could Not Hold

Is a trade consensus in Washington even possible? Well, it used to be. In 1989, the Washington Consensus introduced ten economic principles that championed global trade and guided U.S. policy. This vision was embraced for decades, with trade seen as a bridge connecting nations and strengthening economies. However, by 2025, protectionism and trade wars are now threatening to unravel years of cooperation. So how did trade evolve from a symbol of unity to a flash point for global conflict?

Podcast with Gabrielle Sierra, Shannon K. O'Neil and Edward Alden April 2, 2025 Why It Matters

United States

Open to Debate: Was Trump Right to Increase Tariffs on Chinese Imports?

In a collaboration between CFR and Open to Debate, panelists debate the efficacy of President Trump’s recently enacted ten percent additional tariff on Chinese imports. Open to Debate is the nation’s only nonpartisan, debate-driven media organization dedicated to bringing multiple viewpoints together for a constructive, balanced, respectful exchange of ideas. Open to Debate is a platform for intellectually curious and open-minded people to engage with others holding opposing views on complex issues. Please note there is no virtual component to this meeting. The recording of this debate will be posted on the CFR and Open to Debate websites.

Event with Jennifer Hillman, Rana Mitter, Stephen Moore, Scott Paul and John Donvan February 18, 2025

Middle East

Middle East and North Africa

Where Are U.S. Forces in the Middle East?

Will Merrow/CFR

The ramped-up U.S. attacks against the Yemen-based Houthis are possible in part due to an extensive military footprint in the Middle East. This article maps the U.S. military’s presence.

Article by Jonathan Masters and Will Merrow March 28, 2025

Yemen

Iran’s Support of the Houthis: What to Know

Iranian support has boosted the military prowess of Yemen’s Houthi rebels, helping them project force into the Red Sea. Ramped up U.S.-led attacks on the group raise the prospect of military escalation with Iran.

In Brief by Kali Robinson March 24, 2025

Iran

U.S.-Iran Nuclear Diplomacy Is Stirring: Is It Serious?

A strategically weakened Iran has sent signals it would be willing to discuss the militarization of its nuclear program with the United States, but any diplomatic breakthroughs are highly unlikely.

Expert Brief by Ray Takeyh March 11, 2025 Middle East Program

Trade

RealEcon

Tariffs Will Destroy the Other Half of the Trade Equation

US exports not only reduce deficits, they also bring higher-paying jobs and greater innovation. A tariff-driven trade war will hold back their growth.

Article by Shannon K. O'Neil March 31, 2025 Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies

Trade

How Hard Can Countries Push Back on U.S. Tariffs?

Trade retaliation looms from Canada, China, Mexico, and the European Union in response to U.S. tariffs. Four timelines lay out their responses, and the experience of American soybean farmers in 2018 shows how damaging this could be.

Article by Christopher Shim and Will Merrow March 21, 2025 RealEcon

Trade

We’ve Been Looking at Trade All Wrong

There was once a broad consensus in Washington that trade was a force for good—a way to connect, grow, and prosper. But today, trade has evolved into something much bigger than just the exchange of goods. It’s become a powerful tool to rewrite the rules of foreign policy, reshape how the United States is viewed by the rest of the world, and steer us toward an increasingly uncertain future. When did this change begin, and where did we go off course?

Podcast with Gabrielle Sierra and Edward Alden March 19, 2025 Why It Matters

Myanmar

Are Political Tremors Also Coming?

The massive earthquake in Myanmar has exacerbated the country’s existing crises, and will likely worsen instability rather than lead to peace.

Post by Joshua Kurlantzick April 1, 2025 Asia Unbound

Earthquake Compounds Myanmar’s Humanitarian Crisis

via Associated Press March 31, 2025

Myanmar

Conflict Tracker: Civil War in Myanmar

via Center for Preventive Action January 2, 2025

United States

The Long, Proud History of Women in the Military

Women in the military have been removed from the Department of Defense and Arlington Memorial Cemetery's websites: why this is happening and how it can be reversed.

Post by Linda Robinson March 27, 2025 Women Around the World

Women and Women's Rights

Where Do Women Wield Power?

Find out where women around the world wield political power—and why it matters.

Interactive by Linda Robinson and Noël James April 1, 2025 Women and Foreign Policy Program

Defense and Security

Demographics of the U.S. Military

Deployed around the world, the armed forces are a pillar of U.S. power and influence abroad. But many civilians are unfamiliar with their composition. How much does the military resemble U.S. society?

Backgrounder by CFR.org Editors July 13, 2020

CFR experts provide timely analysis on the trade-offs and costs associated with U.S. President Donald Trump’s economic policies.

Explore Our Content

Strategic Initiatives

Securing Ukraine’s Future

Securing Ukraine’s Future provides timely, informed analysis and practical policy recommendations for U.S. policymakers and the American public.

Paul B. Stares

General John W. Vessey Senior Fellow for Conflict Prevention and Director of the Center for Preventive Action

“

"How the Europeans respond in the coming weeks will not only have great bearing on the fate of Ukraine but also on the future of the transatlantic partnership that has been so vital to their security for close to eight decades."

Europe’s Moment of Truth on Defending Ukraine—and the Continent by Paul B. Stares and Michael E. O'Hanlon

China Strategy Initiative

The China Strategy Initiative provides fresh analysis, granular policy recommendations, and answers the questions that go to the heart of American China strategy.

Rush Doshi

C.V. Starr Senior Fellow for Asia Studies and Director of the China Strategy Initiative

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The PRC seeks to “catch up and surpass” the U.S. technologically; to make the world dependent on China’s supply chains economically; and to acquire the capability to defeat U.S. forces militarily.

Countering Threats Posed by the Chinese Communist Party to U.S. National Security by Rush Doshi

RealEcon

RealEcon assesses the role of the U.S. in the international economy, analyzes what's at stake for the American people, and identifies trade-offs in different policy approaches.

Matthew P. Goodman

Distinguished Fellow, Director of the Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies, and Director of the CFR RealEcon Initiative

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A serious effort to bring greater reciprocity into the trading system could benefit the United States.... But a sudden, ill-thought-out initiative would leave American companies and consumers much worse off.

Donald Trump Wants Reciprocity in Trade: Here’s a Closer Look by Edward Alden and Jennifer Hillman

Events
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United States

Climate Realism Initiative Launch

The United States' historical approach to climate change is failing. American clean technology industries lag dangerously behind their international competitors, threatening U.S. geopolitical and economic influence, and climate change is on track to exceed internationally agreed targets, endangering U.S. national security. CFR’s new Climate Realism Initiative, led by Senior Fellow Varun Sivaram, will chart a fundamentally new course for U.S. climate and energy policy—one that is both realistic in its assessment of the world's climate trajectory fueled by rising emissions outside U.S. borders and realist in its expectation that the United States and other countries will work to advance their own interests in the emerging energy transition. The launch event will bring together leading experts, policymakers, and industry leaders to examine how the United States can prepare for the geopolitical and security consequences of accelerating climate change, build globally competitive and innovative American clean technology industries, and pursue novel approaches—from coordinating strategic trade actions to exploring geoengineering—to prevent the most catastrophic potential climate impacts from endangering U.S. interests. Click here to view the full agenda. If you wish to attend virtually, log-in information and instructions on how to participate during question-and-answer portions will be provided the evening before the event to those who register. Please note the audio, video, and transcript of this event will be posted on the CFR website. The Climate Realism Initiative Launch is made possible by the generous support of the ClimateWorks Foundation. Members may bring a guest to this event.

Virtual Event with Joshua Freed, Sherri Goodman, Maureen Hinman, David Keith, David W. Livingston, Ernest J. Moniz, Julia Nesheiwat, Rachel Pritzker, David G. Victor, David Wallace-Wells, David M. Hart, Alice C. Hill, Mary Louise Kelly and Varun Sivaram April 7, 2025

United States

C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics With Tom Barkin

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin discusses U.S. monetary policy and the outlook for inflation and labor markets. The C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics brings the world’s foremost economic policymakers and scholars to address members on current topics in international economics. This meeting series is presented by the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies. If you wish to attend virtually, log-in information and instructions on how to participate during the question and answer portion will be provided the evening before the event to those who register. Please note the audio, video, and transcript of this hybrid meeting will be posted on the CFR website.

Virtual Event with Tom Barkin and John Lipsky April 1, 2025

China

Transition 2025 Series: The Future of U.S.-China Relations

Panelists discuss the future of U.S.-China relations under the new Trump administration, including recent developments relating to trade, technological innovation, and increasing military tensions in the Indo-Pacific.If you wish to attend virtually, log-in information and instructions on how to participate during the question and answer portion will be provided the evening before the event to those who register. Please note the audio, video, and transcript of this hybrid meeting will be posted on the CFR website.This meeting is part of CFR's Transition 2025 Series, which examines the major foreign policy issues confronting the Trump administration and is presented in partnership with CFR’s China Strategy Initiative.

Virtual Event with Zongyuan Zoe Liu, Liza Tobin, Jeremie Waterman and Rush Doshi March 31, 2025

Middle East and North Africa

The Trump Administration’s Approach to the Middle East

Panelists discuss the Trump administration’s role in the Israel-Hamas peace negotiations, U.S. relations with other Middle East countries, and the administration’s priorities regarding U.S. involvement and stability in the region. This meeting is part of CFR’s Transition 2025 series, which examines the major foreign policy issues confronting the Trump administration. Please note there is no virtual component to the meeting. The audio, video, and transcript of the discussion portion of this event will be posted on the CFR website.

Event with Elliott Abrams, Bernard Haykel, Denise Natali and Missy Ryan March 28, 2025 Middle East Program

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Experts in the News

Michael B.G. Froman

Froman: Trump’s Tariffs Are a Significant Shift From Eighty Years of Trade Policy

Via CNN April 2, 2025

Shannon K. O'Neil

O’Neil: Tariffs Will Destroy the Best Cure for the Trade Deficit

Via Bloomberg March 28, 2025

Sebastian Mallaby

Mallaby: Trump's Tariffs are Pushing American Financial Assets to Europe

Via Marketplace March 25, 2025

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United Nations

How Much Does the U.S. Pay to UN Agencies?

Backgrounder by CFR.org Editors

Many UN agencies, programs, and missions receive crucial funding from the United States. In his second administration, President Trump is again calling for greater scrutiny of U.S. funding and involvement in the global body.

Women and Women's Rights Where Are Women Wielding Power?

Interactive by Linda Robinson and Noël James

Climate Change The World Faces a Sharp Rise in Extreme Weather. Can AI Help?

Article by Alice C. Hill and Colin McCormick

Immigration and Migration Why Six Countries Account for Most Migrants at the U.S.-Mexico Border

Immersive_article_layout by Will Freeman, Steven Holmes and Sabine Baumgartner

Jennifer Hillman

Senior Fellow for Trade and International Political Economy

Trade World Trade Organization (WTO) NAFTA

Trump’s Use of Emergency Powers to Impose Tariffs Is an Abuse of Power

Offsite Via Lawfare March 24, 2025

Steven A. Cook

Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies and Director of the International Affairs Fellowship for Tenured International Relations Scholars

Middle East and North Africa Turkey Arab Spring

How the Imamoglu arrest and Turkey's handling of the protests impact the country's economy

Offsite Via Deutsche Welle March 24, 2025

Joshua Kurlantzick

Senior Fellow for Southeast Asia and South Asia

Southeast Asia China Asia

Are Political Tremors Also Coming?

Post April 1, 2025 Asia Unbound

Featured Publications

International Law

Eastward, Westward

Few Americans have done more than Jerome A. Cohen to advance the rule of law in East Asia. The founder of the study of Chinese law in the United States and a tireless advocate for human rights, Cohen has been a scholar, teacher, lawyer, and activist for more than sixty years. Moving among the United States, China, and Taiwan, he has encouraged legal reforms, promoted economic cooperation, mentored law students—including a future president of Taiwan—and brokered international crises. In this compelling, conversational memoir, Cohen recounts a dramatic life of striving for a better world from Washington, DC, to Beijing, offering vital first-hand insights from the study and practice of Sino-American relations. In the early 1960s, when Americans were not permitted to enter China, he met with émigrés in Hong Kong and interviewed them on Chinese criminal procedure. After economic reform under Deng Xiaoping, Cohen’s knowledge of Chinese law took on a new importance as foreign companies began to pursue business opportunities. Helping China develop and reconstruct its legal system, he made an influential case for the roles of Western law and lawyers. Cohen helped break political barriers in both China and Taiwan, and he was instrumental in securing the release of political prisoners in several countries. Sharing these experiences and many others, this book tells the full story of an unparalleled career bridging East and West.

Book by Jerome A. Cohen March 4, 2025 Asia Program

Public Health Threats and Pandemics

When the World Closed Its Doors

A detailed exploration of the most sweeping government border closures in human history during the COVID-19 pandemic and the implications for the future of global mobility.

Book by Edward Alden and Laurie Trautman January 7, 2025

United States

Reagan

Son of the Midwest, movie star, and mesmerizing politician—America’s fortieth president comes to three-dimensional life in this gripping and profoundly revisionist biography.

Book by Max Boot September 10, 2024

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