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What Happens if China Releases a Mythos-Level, Open-Weight AI Model?

Iran War’s Ripple Effect

Navigating the AI Moment

Podcast: Maximum Pressure on Cuba

In this episode of The President’s Inbox, host James M. Lindsay sits down with CFR expert Will Freeman to break down the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign on Cuba, which is accelerating the country’s economic collapse.

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Around the World

CFR analyses and explainers that address global issues and challenges.

250 Years of American Foreign Policy

Abrams_FAS
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images; Photo illustration by CFR

By Elliott Abrams

Podcasts

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The Spillover

Every geopolitical event — a war, an election, a new tariff, a technological breakthrough — sends ripples through the global economy. On The Spillover, Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson trace those ripples, examining how international developments shape markets, policy, finance, and the future of business.

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Crisis Response Playbooks

The United States lacks a rigorous, routinized approach to managing foreign policy crises. The Wachenheim Center for Peace and Security has developed a set of Crisis Response Playbooks to serve as quick-reference guides for policy planners when bandwidth is limited and decisions are most consequential.

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A satellite image shows ship movement in the Strait of Hormuz on April 2, 2026.
A satellite image shows ship movement in the Strait of Hormuz on April 2, 2026.

When armed conflict disrupts a critical maritime trade route, the United States can monitor, contain, or escalate the situation economically or militarily.

A helicopter lands on the flight deck of the patrol ship HSwMS Carlskrona after it set sail to join NATO’s Operation Baltic Sentry on February 4, 2025.
A helicopter lands on the flight deck of the patrol ship HSwMS Carlskrona after it set sail to join NATO’s Operation Baltic Sentry on February 4, 2025.

When a U.S. partner state faces a hybrid attack by an unknown aggressor, the United States should draw on various available response options to protect its treaty commitments, credibility, and commercial interests.

Burkina Faso’s self-declared leader Ibrahim Traore is surrounded by supporters holding Russian flags in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, on October 2, 2022.
Burkina Faso’s self-declared leader Ibrahim Traore is surrounded by supporters holding Russian flags in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, on October 2, 2022.

When a coup occurs abroad, the early hours of the crisis are most crucial for preserving and promoting U.S. interests—whether countering terrorism, checking adversaries‘ regional influence, upholding human rights norms, or maintaining diplomatic and economic relationships. Policy planners should therefore prepare for the unexpected.

Members of the March 23 Movement rebel group attend the April 2025 opening ceremony of a bank that had been closed since the group’s takeover of Goma, Democratic Republic of Congo, in January 2025.
Members of the March 23 Movement rebel group attend the April 2025 opening ceremony of a bank that had been closed since the group’s takeover of Goma, Democratic Republic of Congo, in January 2025.

Insurgency-related conflicts often start without warning and can last over a decade, making the pre-crisis and early crisis phases crucial for U.S. policymakers seeking to prevent national security threats and humanitarian disasters from emerging. Effective responses involve a complex set of legal authorities and international frameworks and require the sustained support of the American public and local communities.

Publications

CFR publishes reports and papers for the interested public, the academic community, and foreign policy experts.

Disabled person with Multiple Sclerosis hand sorting prescription pills
Disabled person with Multiple Sclerosis hand sorting prescription pills

Executive Summary U.S. dependence on China for essential medicines is structural—deeper, broader, and more consequential than conventional market analyses suggest. That dependence began with generic medicines and their ingredients but is now growing in biologics manufacturing, first-in-human trials, and synthetic DNA. That dependence is not simply the result of market conditions but rather decades of […]

<p>Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin attend the Victory Day military parade in Moscow on May 9, 2025.</p>
<p>Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin attend the Victory Day military parade in Moscow on May 9, 2025.</p>

Introduction Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia has made a concerted effort to keep Belarus in its sphere of influence. Belarus’s political, economic, and military autonomy has ebbed and flowed over time, depending on geopolitical circumstances, Russia’s needs, and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s political adroitness. Nevertheless, the present moment poses unique challenges for […]

Steam rolls off a slab of steel as it rolls down the line at the Novolipetsk Steel PAO steel mill in Farrell, Pennsylvania,
Steam rolls off a slab of steel as it rolls down the line at the Novolipetsk Steel PAO steel mill in Farrell, Pennsylvania,

CFR’s U.S. Government Deal Tracker shows how the government is experimenting with new tools and financing structures to advance a range of strategic sectors, including critical minerals, energy, global logistics, manufacturing, telecommunications, and other technologies.

By Jonathan E. Hillman

FinancingEnergyTechnologies
FinancingEnergyTechnologies

A gap in private funding for companies and projects inhibits energy innovation in the United States. This “missing middle” slows or blocks technologies that could help the energy system become more secure, affordable, reliable, and sustainable from advancing through the demonstration and scale-up stages. Recent events have made the missing middle wider.

An Iranian woman holding a poster depicting Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei walks under a large flag during the forty-seventh anniversary of the Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran on February 11, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/West Asia News Agency via Reuters
An Iranian woman holding a poster depicting Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei walks under a large flag during the forty-seventh anniversary of the Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran on February 11, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/West Asia News Agency via Reuters

Suzanne Maloney, vice president and director of the Brookings Institution’s Foreign Policy Program, recommends that the United States reconsider its assumptions around eventual leadership change in Tehran, revive regime accountability efforts, prepare for opportunistic escalation by proxy groups, and ready itself for renewed nuclear diplomacy.

A woman holds a picture of a victim of forced disappearance during a 2025 ceremony in Colombia to honor loved ones who remain missing.
A woman holds a picture of a victim of forced disappearance during a 2025 ceremony in Colombia to honor loved ones who remain missing.

CFR International Affairs Fellow in National Security Roxanna Vigil argues that the United States should engage early with Colombia’s next administration to signal support for full implementation of the 2016 Peace Accords and provide targeted assistance.

CFR in the News

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