Election 2024: Will Joe Biden Exit the Presidential Race?

The nation turned its eyes to Milwaukee last night as Donald J. Trump accepted the Republican Party’s presidential nomination for the third election in a row. But the question on everyone’s mind inside and outside the Fiserv Forum was, who will be his opponent in November?

The pressure on Joe Biden to step aside as the Democratic presidential candidate that died down last week flared again this week. The news media reported that former President Barack Obama, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, and House Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi each told Biden privately in their own way that his chances of winning were fading and that he would be imperiling the party if he stayed in the race. Jon Tester of Montana and Martin Heinrich of New Mexico became the second and third Democratic senators to call on Biden to head to the sidelines. California Democratic Senate candidate Adam Schiff, a close confidant of Pelosi’s, added his name to those urging Biden to step down. Just this morning, four Democratic Congressmen asked Biden “to pass the torch to a new generation of Democratic leaders.” More defections, possibly a stampede of them, seem likely.

Biden, who tested positive for Covid on Wednesday and had to leave the campaign trail, can’t find much comfort in poll numbers or campaign contributions. An AP-NORC poll out this week found that 65 percent of Democrats want him to leave the race, and just 27 percent are very or extremely confident about his mental capacity to be an effective president. Campaign contributions in July have fallen to less than half the $50 million originally projected.

The question now is not whether Biden can leave the race, especially if the Democratic Party leadership abandons its effort to nominate him through a virtual roll-call vote before the Democratic National Convention opens a month from today. The Democratic Party’s rules establish a process for replacing a potential nominee.

The question is instead whether Biden will leave the race. It is difficult, though not impossible, to push him off the ticket. But that would mean a bruising internal fight that would likely guarantee what Biden’s critics are seeking to prevent—Trump’s election. That outcome could happen even if Biden bows out gracefully. Presidential campaigns are unforgiving, especially for new candidates and campaign organizations in flux.

Biden continues to signal that he will remain in the race. His campaign chair told Morning Joe today that he will return to the campaign trail next week. That, of course, is not dispositive. If Biden decides to step aside, it’s in his interest and the Democratic Party’s to break that news rather than telegraph it.

One group rooting for Biden to stay in the race is the Trump campaign. It has built its Election 2024 strategy around attacking his weaknesses. Indeed, Trump advisers have attacked the dump-Biden movement as illegitimate. Senior Trump campaign adviser Chris LaCivita yesterday called the effort an “attempted coup.” If Biden does stand down, former Trump adviser Stephen Miller has signaled the Trump campaign’s likely line of attack: “Nothing says democracy like holding a fake primary and then having donors handpick a nominee behind closed doors.”

Whether Biden stays in the race or not, the protracted debate over his fitness will only further complicate U.S. foreign policy. As I have noted before, countries, like people, hedge their bets. Many foreign capitals are already concluding that they will be dealing with a new president next January and trimming their sails accordingly. And if Biden does decide to step aside, he will automatically become a lame duck. That will raise a whole new set of questions and challenges.

Campaign Update

Last Saturday night’s attempted assassination of Trump shocked the world and raised difficult questions about why the Secret Service and other law enforcement officials ignored warning signs that a shooter threatened the president. What’s unknown is how the shooting will affect the presidential race, both in terms of tone and outcome. Fears of violence on the campaign trail were voiced long before Saturday. Democratic and Republican leaders—there were exceptions—joined Trump and Biden in calling for calm and a lowering of the political rhetoric, but fears about escalating violence and the fraying of U.S. democracy remain real. Adding an additional layer of concern are reports that the U.S. intelligence community has compiled substantial evidence that Iran is seeking to assassinate Trump.

With the selection of J.D. Vance as Trump’s running mate, Democrats and Republicans have turned to negotiations over the timing and host of a vice-presidential debate. Trump agreed back in May on behalf of his yet-to-be-named nominee to a debate on either July 23 or August 13, or on an unspecified date after the Democratic National Convention closed. Harris had previously agreed to the July and August dates. The sticking point was which network would host the event. Harris agreed to appear on CBS, while Trump called for the debate to be on Fox. The July 23 date is no longer an option, and given the uncertainty about the Democratic ticket, August 13 likely isn’t either.

Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed the case that Special Counsel Jack Smith filed charging Trump with mishandling classified-documents case. Cannon based her ruling on the grounds that Smith's appointment was unconstitutional. Cannon’s decision rejected longstanding precedent and builds on a point that Justice Clarence Thomas made in his concurring opinion in the Supreme Court’s recent decision on Trump’s claim to unqualified presidential immunity. The Justice Department will likely appeal Cannon’s ruling. Regardless of how that appeal fares, Trump will not face prosecution on the classified-documents charges before Election Day.

What the Candidates Are Saying

Trump’s acceptance speech to the Republican National Convention last night set the record for length. It clocked in at a shade over ninety-two minutes. He beat the old record, which he set back in 2016, by nearly eighteen minutes.

Trump didn’t break any new policy ground in his remarks. As usual, he made a number of false claims, which news outlets fact-checked even if many voters don’t seem to care. On the foreign policy front, he didn’t stop North Korean missile launches—they resumed before he left office. He didn’t defeat ISIS in a “couple of months.” The fight against ISIS, which began during Barack Obama’s presidency, continued for more than two years into his presidency. And while China signed a $50 billion trade deal with Trump, it didn’t live up to the terms of the agreement. The United States didn’t leave $85 billion worth of military equipment behind in Afghanistan; the number was closer to $7 billion.

Bloomberg Businessweek ran a story this week based on an interview with Trump at Mar-a-Lago. Much of the interview addressed economic matters. But Trump’s answer to whether he would defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression likely set off alarm bells in Taipei and triggered smiles in Beijing. Trump complained that Taiwan took away the U.S. chip industry and said:

Taiwan should pay us for defense. You know, we’re no different than an insurance company. Taiwan doesn’t give us anything. Taiwan is 9,500 miles away. It’s 68 miles away from China. A slight advantage, and China’s a massive piece of land, they could just bombard it.

He went on to add that if he were China “I wouldn’t feel so secure right now.” No doubt.

Joe Biden sat down with Lester Holt of NBC News for a one-on-one interview. Most of the conversation dealt with Biden’s reaction to the attempted assassination of Trump, heated rhetoric on the campaign trail, and Biden’s fitness for office. Foreign policy did not get a mention.

Biden did apologize for saying a week ago that “it’s time to put Trump in the bull’s-eye.” 

What the Pundits Are Saying

Politico’s Jonathan Martin detailed the alarm that Trump’s pick of Vance to be his running mate has created among internationalist Republicans. Martin doesn’t pull any punches about the division within the GOP over how active the United States should be in the world and where: “Trump didn’t just select a running mate here—he doused political kerosene on the raging Republican fire over foreign policy.”

The New Yorker’s Jonathan Blitzer explored the evolution of the network of far-right groups that are championing Trump’s election and creating the agenda they hope he will enact should he return to the White House. Blitzer wrote that “the Trump campaign has tried to distance itself from the most radical aspects of Project 2025. There are no benefits—only political liabilities—to endorsing so many specifics. Trump’s supporters already know what he stands for, in a general sense. And there is the more delicate matter of the former President’s ego. ‘He wouldn’t want to be seen as taking guidance from any other human being,’ the former senior White House official told me. ‘He doesn’t like to be seen as someone who doesn’t know everything already.’”

What the Polls Show

The Pew Research Center issued a report today showing that American adults under the age of thirty have different foreign policy priorities than their elders do. Six-out-of-ten Americans between the ages of eighteen and twenty-nine flag combating climate change as their top priority. Only about four-in-ten Americans over the age of thirty feel the same way. Conversely, nine-in-ten Americans over the age of fifty see preventing terrorism as a top priority. Just 55 percent of young Americans do. The young and the old show similar divergences on issues such as Iran, Israel, NATO, and Ukraine, with younger voters being less supportive. One thing to keep in mind. Older Americans are far more likely to vote than younger ones.

The Campaign Schedule

The Democratic National Convention opens in Chicago in thirty-one days (August 19, 2024).

The second presidential debate is in fifty-three days (September 10, 2024).

Donald Trump’s sentencing hearing on his New York felony convictions is in sixty-one days (September 18, 2024).

The first in-person absentee voting in the nation begins in Minnesota and South Dakota in sixty-three days (September 20, 2024).

Election Day is 109 days away.

Inauguration Day is 185 days away.

Aliya Kaisar assisted in the preparation of this post.