High Stakes in Southern Africa

The people of Namibia will cast their votes in the country’s seventh election since achieving independence in 1990. Today, a majority of Namibians believe their country is on the wrong track, and concerns about unemployment run deep. Eye-popping corruption scandals have shaken public trust in government. It’s a set of conditions common to many states in the region, which may well make Namibia’s elections the latest example of the anti-incumbent sentiment sweeping the globe. A divided opposition makes it unlikely that any party will garner more votes than the South West Africa People’s Organization (SWAPO), but a majority of votes for the ruling party is certainly not guaranteed.  

One does not need to look far afield to conclude that the ruling party, SWAPO, could be in trouble. Last month Botswana’s voters delivered a decisive defeat to the long-dominant Botswana Democratic Party in a resounding demand for new leadership. South Africa’s venerable African National Congress failed to attract of majority of votes in May, forcing President Ramaphosa to form a coalition government, though it goes by the face-saving but inaccurate name of a Government of National Unity. Change is in the air.  

But Zimbabwe and Mozambique point to another, darker path, in which liberation parties resist popular will for change by intimidating the public and the opposition and rigging electoral results. Zimbabwe’s 2023 elections were so deeply flawed that even observers from the Southern African Development Community—usually a reliable rubber stamp—cried foul. But the ruling ZANU-PF carries on persecuting its own citizens and floating the idea of a third term for the current president. 

In Mozambique, citizens have been incensed by the glaring irregularities that marred last month’s elections, and the resultant violence clearly intended to silence them. The Constitutional Council has yet to validate the announced results, which many find implausible—a sweeping victory of over 70 percent of the votes for the ruling FRELIMO party’s candidate. Human Rights Watch found that among the casualties of the state’s violent crackdown on demonstrations were ten children killed by gunfire, and another thirty-six wounded, as security forces have turned the streets into warzones. Citizens have taken to banging pots and pans out their windows to signal their disapproval without risking their lives.  

Current President Nyusi is seeking a way out of the crisis by proposing a meeting with all those who ran for the presidency. One can imagine the playbook—offering candidates some kind of largesse for going along with FRELIMO’s preferred narrative. After all, Mozambique’s longtime opposition party, RENAMO, has been so thoroughly co-opted that Mozambicans refer wryly to “FRENAMO” to characterize the arrangement. But this past electoral cycle saw the emergence of a new political force—Venancio Mondlane, backed by the PODEMOS party. Mondlane claims that he won the election and seems to be playing by a different rulebook. Wary of backroom deals, he has demanded transparency in the proposed meeting of candidates and the sitting president and called for the release of citizens detained for exercising their right to protest. Despite the murder of his lawyer and a political ally in the days after the election, the freezing of his assets, and the fact that he has had to flee to an undisclosed location, he has continued to press his case via social media. It’s hard to imagine FRELIMO making meaningful concessions considering the party wasn’t even willing to hold a free and fair election. But even if FRELIMO continues to dominate government going forward, the divergence between the party and the will of the people has been glaringly exposed.