War in Ukraine
Four years since Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia still occupies roughly 20 percent of the country after gaining almost five thousand square kilometers of territory in 2025. Russia continues to bombard Ukrainian cities, while Ukraine maintains drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and military sites. Since January 2022, Ukraine has received about $188 billion in aid from the United States and $197 billion from the European Union. Fighting and air strikes have inflicted nearly 56,000 civilian casualties [PDF], while 3.7 million people are internally displaced, and 5.9 million are registered as refugees. 10.8 million people need humanitarian assistance.
The Trump administration pledged to seek a settlement to end the war, setting out a twenty-point draft peace deal and a June deadline. Although Ukraine accepted the proposal after discussions, many terms of the deal—including territorial concessions and security guarantees—remain unclear. Russia, meanwhile, has stated that it will not agree to an amended deal that departs from the “spirit and letter” of President Putin’s August summit with President Trump in Alaska.
Background
Armed conflict in eastern Ukraine erupted in early 2014 following Russia’s annexation of Crimea. The previous year, protests in Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, against Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s rejection of a deal for greater economic integration with the European Union (EU) were met with a violent crackdown by state security forces. Subsequently, the protests escalated, and President Yanukovych fled the country in February 2014.
One month later, in March 2014, Russian special forces took control of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea. Russian President Vladimir Putin cited the need to protect the rights of Russian citizens and Russian speakers in Crimea and southeast Ukraine. Russia then formally annexed the peninsula after Crimeans voted to join the Russian Federation in a disputed local referendum. The crisis heightened ethnic divisions, and two months later, pro-Russian separatists in the eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk held independence referendums.
Armed conflict in the regions quickly broke out between Russian-backed forces and the Ukrainian military. Though Russia denied military involvement, both Ukraine and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) reported Russian troops and military equipment near Donetsk and Russian cross-border shelling. The conflict transitioned to an active stalemate, with regular shellingand skirmishes occurring along the frontlines.
In October 2021, months of intelligence gathering of Russian troop movements, force build-up, and military contingency financing culminated in a White House briefing with U.S. intelligence, military, and diplomatic leaders on a near-certain mass-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. Leading up to the invasion, the Joe Biden administration reduced information-sharing constraints and allowed for the broader dissemination of intelligence and findings, both with allies—including Ukraine—and publicly. Commercial satellite imagery, social media posts, and published intelligence from November and December 2021 showed armor, missiles, and other heavy weaponry moving toward Ukraine with no official explanation from the Kremlin. In mid-December 2021, Russia’s foreign ministry called on the United States and NATO to cease military activity in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, commit to no further NATO expansion toward Russia, and prevent Ukraine from joining NATO in the future. The United States and NATO rejected these demands and threatened to impose severe economic sanctions on Russia.
In early February 2022, satellite imagery showed the largest deployment of Russian troops to its border with Belarus since the end of the Cold War. Negotiations between the United States, Russia, and European powers failed to bring about a resolution. In late February 2022, the United States warned that Russia intended to invade Ukraine, citing Russia’s growing military presence at the Russia-Ukraine border. President Putin then ordered troops to Luhansk and Donetsk for a “peacekeeping” function. The United States responded by imposing sanctions on the regions and the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Nevertheless, just before the invasion, U.S. and Ukrainian leaders remained at odds regarding the likelihood of an armed Russian threat, with Ukrainian officials playing down the possibility of an incursion and delaying the mobilization of their troops and reserve forces.
On February 24, 2022, during a last-ditch UN Security Council effort to dissuade Russia from invading Ukraine, Putin announced the beginning of a full-scale land, sea, and air invasion, targeting Ukrainian military assets and cities across the country. Putin claimed that the goals of the operation were to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine and end the alleged genocide of Russians in Ukrainian territory. U.S. President Joe Biden called the attack “unprovoked and unjustified” and issued severe sanctions against top Kremlin officials, including Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov; four of Russia’s largest banks; and the Russian oil and gas industry in coordination with European allies. On March 2, 141 of 193 UN member states voted to condemn Russia’s invasion in an emergency UN General Assembly session, demanding that Russia immediately withdraw from Ukraine.
As the initial Russian invasion slowed in March, long-range missile strikes caused significant damage to Ukrainian military assets, urban residential areas, and communication and transportation infrastructure. Hospitals and residential complexes also sustained shelling and bombing attacks. Later that month, Russia announced a “reduction in military activity” near Kyiv and Chernihiv, followed by a full withdrawal of all troops from Ukraine’s capital region by April 6. In Kyiv’s surrounding areas, civilians described apparent war crimes committed by Russian forces, including accounts of summary executions, torture, and rape.
On April 18, Russia launched a new major offensivein eastern Ukraine following its failed attemptto seize the capital. By May, Russian forces took control of Mariupol, a major and highly strategic southeastern port city. Indiscriminate and targeted attacks against civiliansin the city amplified allegations against Russian forces for international humanitarian law violations. Since the summer of 2022, fighting has largely been confined to Ukraine’s east and south.
The Russian seizure of several Ukrainian ports and subsequent blockade of Ukrainian food exports compounded an already acute global food crisis. Before the conflict, Ukraine was the largest supplier of commodities to the World Food Program (WFP), which provides food assistance to vulnerable populations. In July 2022, Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement to free more than twenty million tons of grain from Russian-controlled Ukrainian ports. In October, Russia suspended the grain deal in response to an alleged Ukrainian attack on Russian naval forces. Turkey quickly negotiated Russia’s return to the deal, which was consistently extended until July 17, 2023, when Russia quit the deal. Ukraine later adopted safe shipping lanes along the coast of NATO members Romania and Bulgaria, which has facilitated higher rates of grain exports compared to 2023.
In mid-August 2022, the war’s frontline shifted south, sparking international fears of a nuclear disaster at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant along the Dnipro River. The largest nuclear plant in Europe, the Zaporizhzhia facility was seized by Russian forces in the earliest stages of the war. Fighting near the facility has raised concerns of critical damage to the plant: shelling of the plant’s switchyard has already led to nearby energy disruptions, such as a city-wide black-out in Enerhodar. Representatives of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have visited Zaporizhzhia on multiple occasions to assess the threat of a nuclear accident. Attacks on the site and damage to its infrastructure continue: in February 2025, the IAEA warned that continued attacks on Ukraine’s power grids could increase the risk of nuclear disaster.
In September 2022, Ukrainian forces made strong advances in the northeast and mounted a revitalized southern counteroffensive. Ukraine retook significant territory in the Kharkiv region, surprising Russian forces and cutting off important supply lines at Lyman before stalling and settling into a new front line. In southern Ukraine, Ukrainian forces retook the city of Kherson and forced a Russian withdrawal from all territory west of the Dnipro River.
Russia then redeployed forces eastward to Donetsk, in addition to sending tens of thousands of reinforcements to the area in advance of a February 2023 offensive. Later that month, Putin moved to illegally annex four occupied territories: Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. In his accompanying speech, Putin suggested the potential for nuclear escalation, referencing the United States’ use of nuclear weapons against Japan during World War II.
Following a winter stalemate, Putin announced plans in February to take all of Donbas by March 2023 in an offensive surge. However, the attack made little progress and devolved into a months-long siege of Bakhmut, a town of limited strategic—but substantial symbolic—value. By late May, Russia claimed control of the city, and Ukrainian attempts to recapture the area were unsuccessful. The United States estimates Russia suffered one hundred thousand casualties in Bakhmut.
On June 6, 2023, a breach in the Nova Kakhovka dam, sixty kilometers north of Kherson on the Dnipro River, caused severe flooding in southwest Ukraine, affecting over eighty thousand people who live in the riparian zone. Ukraine accused Russia of blowing up the dam to prevent a southeastern offensive. The Ukrainian dam operator said it was destroyed beyond repair. In June 2023, Ukraine launched a much-anticipated counteroffensive, attempting to break through Russian defenses eastward in Donetsk province and southward in Zaporizhzhia province, which forms the “land corridor” to Crimea. Ukrainian forces met stiff resistance and suffered heavy losses against hardened Russian defensive positions, air superiority, and minefields. Nonetheless, Ukraine made small gains on the ground and has stepped up attacks on bridges to Crimea, Russian ships, and buildings in Moscow.
Since February 24, 2022, the United States has committed over $118 billion in assistance to Ukraine, including roughly $65 billion in immediate military aid. In early 2023, the Biden administration approved the provision of increasingly advanced weaponry, such as the Patriot air defense system, crucial for defending against Russian airstrikes, and top-tier battle tanks. U.S. troop presence in Europe has also increased to more than one hundred thousand soldiers. Despite continued condemnation by key international actors, Russia continues to build valuable partnerships; North Korea and Iran share intelligence and military equipment, while others, namely India and China, have begun purchasing Russian oil and gas at discounted prices.
On June 23, Putin faced a major internal challenge when Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the former leader of the Wagner Group of mercenaries, accused the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) of shelling his forces and announced a “march of justice” to unseat the military leadership. The mutiny followed months of tensions with the MoD. Wagner forces quickly occupied Rostov-on-Don, seized Russia’s southern military headquarters, and subsequently advanced more than halfway to Moscow. Putin declared the march “treason” and offered amnesty for soldiers who stopped. On June 24, Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko negotiated for Prigozhin and his Wagner soldiers to relocate to Belarus. Two months after the revolt, Prigozhin died in a private plane crash outside of Moscow. U.S. officials believe an explosion ordered by Putin likely brought it down.
In November 2023, Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi said the war had reached a stalemate after Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive. Due to strategic tensions between the president and his top military official, Zelenskyy replaced Zaluzhnyi with seasoned General Oleksandr Syrsky on February 8, 2024. Soon after his appointment, Syrsky ordered the withdrawal of troops from Avdiivka, a strategically important town in Donetsk, where fighting was ongoing for four months. He argued the retreat was necessary to avoid being encircled. The decision, however, handed Russia its most significant battlefield victory since the capture of Bakhmut in May 2023.
Recent Developments
In early August 2024, Ukraine launched the Kursk Offensive, a surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast. This marked the first cross-border offensive conducted primarily by Ukrainian military forces, aiming to divert Russian troops and resources from eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian forces captured 1,250 square kilometers of Russian territory; however, progress stalled as Russia deployed over 50,000 troops to counter the attack. Russia claims to have recaptured roughly half of the territory lost in Kursk. In January 2025, Ukraine followed up with a second incursion, though progress remains limited due to a swift Russian response. Over 10,000 North Korean troops joined Russian forces throughout both offensives, suffering high casualties and eventually being withdrawn in February 2025.
Ukraine remains intent on applying offensive pressure on Russia through continual attacks on Russian infrastructure. In May 2024, Russia reported that Ukrainian drones targeted civilians in the Belgorod Oblast, killing six. In November 2024, Ukraine launched its largest drone strike on Russian territory, attempting to target Moscow. A month later, Ukrainian drones penetrated deep into Russian territory, reaching Kazan. As part of persistent attacks on Russian critical infrastructure, Ukrainian drones continue to target oil refineries, depots, and gas processing plants.
Meanwhile, Russian forces relentlessly seek to weaken the Ukrainian frontline. In May 2024, Russia launched an offensive on the Kharkiv region, which, despite making territorial gains, ultimately stalled. However, Russia’s fall and winter campaigns pushed deeper into Ukraine’s east and southeast, particularly in Donetsk, seizing over 4,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. Despite some doubts among international scholars and critics, Russia remains confident in its wartime economy.
Putin’s veiled threats throughout the war to use nuclear weapons continue to raise fears of escalation. In June 2023, Russia announced the move of tactical nuclear weapons into Belarus, with Belarus confirming receipt in December 2023. In June 2024, both parties conducted nuclear weapons exercises. In November 2024, Putin modified Russia’s nuclear doctrine, stating that Russia would treat a conventional attack by an ally of a nuclear state as grounds for Moscow to launch a nuclear strike.
Ukraine has received consistent aid from the United States, and NATO member states continue to support its war effort. However, following the election of U.S. President Trump, many believe the war may end this year. Trump vowed to end the war upon taking office and has sought to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Zelenskyy has expressed concerns over exclusionary peace talks between the United States and Russia, fearing a disproportionate resolution and lack of security guarantees for Ukraine’s future. Additionally, Kyiv remains worried about freezes in military and humanitarian aid from the United States.
For CFR’s full coverage of Ukraine, please visit our Securing Ukraine’s Future Initiative.
Romania-Ukraine Defense Deal
The countries will jointly produce drones as part of an agreement signed during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to Bucharest, he announced (Ukraine President). They also signed another deal on energy cooperation: the governments are working to build two new cross-border power transmission lines, and the leaders discussed the possibility of transporting U.S. liquefied natural gas through Romania to Ukraine, according to Zelenskyy (Ukraine President).
Russian Strikes Kill Four in Sloviansk as Both Sides Claim Battlefield Gains
Russian glide bombs killed four people and wounded sixteen in Sloviansk, while overnight drone strikes on three other Ukrainian cities wounded at least seventeen more (Reuters). Separately, Ukrainian forces recaptured more than four hundred square kilometers in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Kyiv Independent). Meanwhile, President Vladimir Putin claimed Russia had reduced Ukraine’s share of the Donbas from 25 percent to between 15 and 17 percent, though the claim could not be verified; Putin told U.S. President Donald Trump that his forces were advancing toward a negotiated settlement (AP).
Trump Calls Putin Talk Positive as Russia Offers Iran Diplomacy
Trump described a “very good call” with Putin covering both Ukraine and the Middle East, claiming that Putin “wants to be helpful” on Iran while pressing him to end the Russia-Ukraine war first; Putin's foreign policy aide separately said the Russian president had proposed a plan for a swift diplomatic resolution to the Iranian conflict (Reuters).
Zelenskyy and Dutch PM Expand Joint Arms Production Partnership
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hosted Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten in Kyiv, where the two leaders discussed expanding joint weapons production and investment; Zelenskyy highlighted Ukraine’s firsthand experience countering Iranian-made drones deployed by Russia as a key asset in the partnership (Reuters).
Zelenskyy and Dutch PM Expand Joint Arms Production Partnership
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hosted Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten in Kyiv, where the two leaders discussed expanding joint weapons production and investment; Zelenskyy highlighted Ukraine’s firsthand experience countering Iranian-made drones deployed by Russia as a key asset in the partnership (Reuters).
Russian Missiles Strike Residential Building in Kharkiv
Russian ballistic missiles struck a residential building in Kharkiv, killing at least ten people including children, in a barrage on energy sector and railway infrastructure across the country; Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for an international response and urged partners to continue providing air defense and weapons (Reuters, BBC).
Russia, Ukraine Exchange Prisoners of War
Russia and Ukraine completed a two-day operation to exchange 1,000 prisoners of war (500 from each country); Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the frontlines to deliver a speech and military awards to the returning Ukrainian soldiers (Reuters). The next round of U.S.-brokered negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have been postponed due to the commencement of the U.S.-Iran war, according to Zelensky (Bloomberg).
Russian Attacks Target Railway Infrastructure
At least five people were injured after a Russian drone strike hit an empty passenger train in Mykolaiv, and a missile struck an administrative building at a railway station in Odesa (Reuters). Separately, Russia’s transport ministry accused Ukraine of conducting a drone strike on a Russian liquefied natural gas carrier, named the Arctic Metagaz, which caught on fire in the Mediterranean yesterday (Reuters).
Potential Venue Change for Upcoming U.S.-Brokered Talks
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that U.S.-brokered talks between Russia and Ukraine may take place in Turkey or Switzerland if the originally planned meeting in Abu Dhabi is unfeasible given widening war in the Middle East; Zelenskyy also noted that Western nations have not yet stated that the delivery of air defense missiles to Kyiv would be impacted by commitments to defense in the Middle East (AP).
Kyiv Says Settlements in Zaporizhzhia Retaken
Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi announced that Ukrainian troops have retaken nine settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region since the end of January and are continuing to conduct counterattacks on the southeastern frontier (Reuters). Separately, Russia’s Sheskharis oil terminal stopped oil loadings after a Ukrainian drone attack damaged twenty buildings, set fire to a fuel terminal, and injured five (Reuters). Finally, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told reporters that Ukraine will complete the technical requirements to start negotiations on its European Union (EU) accession process within days; though Ukraine became an EU candidate soon after Russia’s 2022 invasion, Hungary’s opposition has prevented the unanimous approval needed to open accession talks (Reuters).
North Sea Tanker Seizure
Belgian and French forces seized a tanker in the North Sea suspected of carrying sanctioned Russian oil, Belgium’s defense minister said (Belgium MoD). In a social media post, French President Emmanuel Macron called the seizure a “major blow” to the Russian shadow fleet transporting sanctioned oil (President of France).
Ghanaians Killed in Ukraine
An estimated 272 Ghanaians have been recruited to fight for Russia in Ukraine, and at least 55 have been killed, Ghana’s foreign minister said during a visit to Ukraine; he said the Ghanaian government would work to dismantle illegal recruitment schemes (AP).
U.S., Ukraine Hold Talks After Russian Missile and Drone Barrage
Ukrainian and U.S. officials met in Geneva to discuss post-war reconstruction and advance preparations for a potential trilateral settlement framework ahead of talks expected next month (Reuters). According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the meeting followed an overnight Russian barrage of 420 drones and 39 missiles, including 11 ballistic missiles, on infrastructure and residential areas across eight Ukrainian regions, injuring dozens of civilians (AP).
Russia’s War in Ukraine Enters Its Fifth Year
In a social media post today, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy praised his country’s success in maintaining its independence and statehood amid the war, vowing “we will do everything to secure peace and justice” (Ukrainian President). A Kremlin spokesperson said today that Russia is continuing its peacemaking efforts and argued that other countries’ interventions in the war had expanded the conflict into a broader confrontation with the West (Reuters). Top EU officials are visiting Kyiv to show support for Ukraine, but no senior U.S. official is joining the delegation (FT). The anniversary of Russia’s invasion comes amid slow-moving territorial shifts, stalled U.S.-backed peace talks, and a steady Russian aerial campaign on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure (WSJ). French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer are convening a so-called Coalition of the Willing to support Ukraine, reflecting Europe’s increased support over the past year (UKG). Yet the bloc is not fully unified—just yesterday, Hungary blocked a fresh slate of EU sanctions on Russia and a $106 billion loan for Ukraine (Politico).
Dispute Over Oil Flow Through Ukraine
Ahead of a European Union (EU) meeting today, Hungary threatened to block new sanctions on Russia and loan for Ukraine over a dispute regarding Russian oil (Euronews). Last month, Ukraine said a Russian drone hit a Soviet-era pipeline, which halted the flow of Russian oil through Ukraine to Hungary and Slovakia; the two countries, which rely on the pipeline, have accused Ukraine of slowwalking the restart (Guardian). In response to Hungary’s threats to cut aid to Kyiv, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said, “we should not tie together things that are not connected to each other” (EU EAS). Meanwhile, a new assessment from the European Commission, the Ukrainian government, and the World Bank estimated it will cost around $588 billion over the next decade to rebuild Ukraine and enable its economic recovery (UN). That’s around a 12 percent jump from last year’s estimate—reflecting new damage to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure over the last year (Reuters).
Over One Thousand Kenyans Fighting For Russia
A Kenyan intelligence report revealed that over one thousand Kenyans were recruited to fight for Russia in the war in Ukraine; the amount is five times more than initially estimated, and the Russian Embassy in Nairobi denied any illegal recruitment efforts (Reuters). Separately, Sweden announced a $1.42 billion aid package for Ukraine, including short-range air defense equipment, ammunition, long-range missiles, and drones (Reuters).
Hungary to Halt Diesel Shipments to Ukraine
Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto announced that Hungary is suspending diesel exports to Ukraine after attacks on the Druzhba pipeline disrupted Russian oil deliveries to Hungary and Slovakia beginning in late January; while Ukraine attributes the interruption to Russian strikes, Hungary and Slovakia have accused Kyiv of deliberately delaying the resumption of oil flows (Reuters).
Russia Confirms Starlink Outage
The Russian military has not been able to access Starlink internet terminals for two weeks, the country’s Deputy Defense Minister Aleksei Krivoruchko told state media (Reuters). Elon Musk, owner of Starlink parent company SpaceX, has said the company had moved to curb Russia’s unauthorized use of its service (Reuters).
Report: Ukraine Recaptures Most of Territory Russia Seized in December
According to AFP analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War, Ukrainian forces last week recaptured almost as much territory as Russia seized in December; its analysts attributed that progress to Russia’s loss of Starlink access (France24). A Kremlin spokesperson said Russia would press for territorial concessions and other unspecified demands in upcoming talks in Geneva (NYT).
U.S. Brokered-Talks Set for Geneva Next Week
Overnight Drone Strike Kills Three
An overnight Russian drone strike near Kharkiv struck a home, killing three people; Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated the attack undermined diplomatic efforts (AP). Zelenskyy also said that Ukraine would only hold elections after a ceasefire with Russia and security guarantees were in place (Guardian). His comments followed a Financial Times report that Washington had urged Kyiv to hold a presidential election and a referendum on a peace deal with Russia by May 15 or risk losing proposed U.S. security guarantees (FT).
Russia Strikes Odesa Energy Infrastructure
Russian Forces Pushing Forward Around Pokrovsk
Kyiv’s military reported that Russian forces are attempting to press forward around Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine by exploiting weakened air defense systems; the move comes as Moscow continues its attempts to capture the Donetsk region (Reuters). Separately, the EU is considering fast-tracking certain membership protections for Ukraine as part of a potential peace deal, unnamed sources told Bloomberg; a European Commission spokesperson said Kyiv’s future accession to the EU is being discussed in peace talks (Bloomberg).
Russian Airstrike Kills One
A Russian airstrike on a residential area in the city of Kramatorsk in Ukraine’s Donetsk region killed one person and wounded two others; the airstrike comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that the United States has given Ukraine and Russia a June deadline for reaching a peace deal (AP).
Russian General Shot
Vladimir Alekseyev, a senior Russian general, was shot and wounded in Moscow today by an attacker who fled the scene, Russia’s Investigative Committee said (CNN). Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov blamed Ukraine for the attack; Ukrainian authorities did not immediately comment (Reuters). Separately, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told reporters the United States wants Russia and Ukraine to reach a peace agreement by June, adding that Washington would likely pressure both sides to do so (AP). Meanwhile, a Ukrainian military intelligence report found that North Korean troops are providing skilled assistance to Russia’s war efforts; per the report, North Korea has increased its involvement by launching artillery, including multiple-launch rocket systems, from southern Russia (WSJ).
Takeaways From Ukraine Talks
Russia and Ukraine each agreed to release 157 prisoners of war during trilateral talks with the United States in Abu Dhabi this week, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff wrote on social media; Witkoff added that the United States and Russia had agreed to re-establish military-to-military contacts that had been frozen shortly before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (SE Witkoff). It marks their first prisoner swap in at least five months (Politico).
Second Round of Abu Dhabi Talks Begin
Ukraine and Russia concluded the first day of U.S-backed peace talks in Abu Dhabi; Rustem Umerov, head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, described the talks as “productive” (Reuters). Shortly after the negotiations began, a Russian shelling using cluster munitions in a crowded market in Druzhkivka killed at least seven and wounded fifteen (Al-Jazeera).
Russia’s Large-Scale Attack on Energy Infrastructure
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russia disregarded ongoing U.S. peace efforts by conducting an attack on energy infrastructure on Monday night; he further stated that Kyiv will work with Washington to discuss consequences for Russia (Reuters).
Russian Defense Ministry Claims It Now Controls Prydorozhnie Settlement
Russia’s Defense Ministry stated it pushed out Ukrainian forces and took control of the Prydorozhnie settlement in the Zaporizhzhia region in southeastern Ukraine (Reuters).
Russia Strikes Ukrainian Miners
A Russian air strike killed at least twelve miners in southeastern Ukraine, the company that runs the mine said (DTEK Group). The strike came after Trump said last week that Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to temporarily halt strikes on Kyiv and other targets (White House). Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on social media that a new round of trilateral peace talks is scheduled soon, urging the United States to help de-escalate tensions and reduce strikes (Zelenskyy). Separately, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev stated that Russia will soon achieve a military victory in the war (Reuters).
Reported Pause in Ukraine Strikes
Trump said that Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to suspend attacks on some Ukrainian cities for a week due to extreme cold weather, following a personal appeal (AP). Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on social media that the matter had been discussed during last week’s Abu Dhabi talks (X). The next round of direct talks is scheduled for this weekend in Abu Dhabi, though Zelenskyy said the situation in Iran could delay them (Reuters).
Russian Drone Strike Kills Three in Zaporizhzhia
A Russian drone strike killed three and wounded three others in the Zaporizhzhia region of southeastern Ukraine; over the past day, Russia has launched over eight hundred strikes across thirty-four settlements in the region (Reuters).
Ukraine War Casualties
As many as 325,000 Russian troops and 140,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed since Russia invaded Ukraine almost four years ago, the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated in a new report; Russia’s total war casualties—including wounded and missing soldiers—total around 1.2 million people, the study found (CSIS). That would mean Russia has amassed the highest number of casualties among major powers in any conflict since World War II (CNN). Moscow and Kyiv have rarely issued public estimates of military losses; the study cited estimates by Western officials (WaPo).
Kremlin Reaffirms Territorial Demands
The Kremlin said territorial control remains fundamental to any deal to end the war in Ukraine, as Vladimir Putin insists Russia must secure the entire Donbas region despite U.S.-brokered talks in Abu Dhabi ending without agreement (Reuters).
Trilateral Peace Talks Conclude in Abu Dhabi
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called talks with Russian and U.S. envoys on Friday “constructive” in a social media post, adding that the next round could take place as early as next week (X). A document detailing U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine was “100 percent ready” for signing, Zelenskyy said at a news conference (Al Jazeera). Even as diplomacy moves forward, Russian air attacks cut power to 1.2 million Ukrainian properties for part of the weekend (Reuters).
Trilateral U.S.-Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks in Abu Dhabi
Envoys from Russia, Ukraine, and the United States are meeting for the first known trilateral talks since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 (CNN). Russia’s delegation in Abu Dhabi is led by top intelligence official Admiral Igor Olegovich Kostyukov (Reuters). Ukraine’s delegation includes top negotiator Rustem Umerov, deputy head of Zelenskyy’s office Kyrylo Budanov, and Andrii Hnatov, chief of general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces (CNN). Witkoff and Kushner are also expected to be in Abu Dhabi today, TASS reported (TASS). Although it was not immediately clear whether they would take part in the trilateral talks, Witkoff will participate in a separate U.S.-Russia economic dialogue while there (Al Jazeera). Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Davos, where Zelenskyy said security guarantees for Ukraine had been finalized, but territorial control remained unresolved (Reuters).
Zelenskyy at Davos: Europe and Ukraine’s Destinies Are Interconnected
He called for greater European unity and military strength (NYT). As Russia, Ukraine, and the United States prepare to meet for trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters that he believed both sides “want to make a deal” (White House). U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner had a lengthy meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, who said the possibility of a long-term settlement depended on one issue (Le Monde/AFP).
Russian Attack on Kyiv
Overnight Russian strikes disabled much of Kyiv’s electricity, water, and heating supply, Mayor Vitali Klitschko wrote on social media (FT; Telegram). Russian forces used ballistic and cruise missiles and more than three hundred drones to carry out strikes across Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote (X). Russia has continually targeted Ukraine’s power grid each wartime winter, and Zelenskyy warned Moscow was preparing another “massive strike” in the coming days (X). Meanwhile, Russian and U.S. envoys held talks at Davos on a potential peace settlement in Ukraine, while Ukrainian envoys met with European counterparts (TASS; Telegram). Witkoff described the talks with Russian envoys as positive, but said “land deals” remained an outstanding issue (CNBC).
Rising Civilian Deaths in Ukraine
Conflict-related violence killed 2,514 civilians in Ukraine last year, more than any year since the war’s start in 2022, the UN human rights office said; the 31 percent rise in civilian deaths and injuries was due not only to expanded frontline fighting but also to heightened use of long-range weapons, a UN official said (UN).
Russian Pushback on Troops in Ukraine
Russia would consider any Western troop deployments or military facilities in Ukraine “legitimate combat targets,” its foreign ministry said; the statement was a response to France’s and the United Kingdom’s plans to deploy troops to the country as part of postwar security guarantees (Reuters).
France and UK Pledge to Deploy Troops to Postwar Ukraine
France and the UK signed a declaration of intent to deploy forces to Ukraine in the event of a peace deal as U.S. envoys discussed plans for ceasefire monitoring at a Paris meeting (UKG). The two countries plan to establish military hubs across Ukraine and build facilities for defense equipment (WSJ). French President Emmanuel Macron said he expected other nations to soon join in pledging troops, as the mostly European group also declared it was ready to commit to post-truce guarantees, including a U.S.-led ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism (FT; President of Ukraine). A group of Ukraine’s allies, who dub themselves the Coalition of the Willing, have for months been meeting without the United States; they hailed Washington’s participation in the summit as major progress (Reuters). While the United States did not sign the declaration, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff said after the summit that President Donald Trump “strongly stands behind security protocols” (Guardian). Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, as well as the top U.S. general in Europe, Alexus Grynkewich, also participated in talks (AP). Unnamed officials told media outlets that the proposed U.S.-led ceasefire monitoring mechanism would include unmanned drones, sensors, and satellites rather than U.S. troops (Al Jazeera). Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that solidifying details on Ukraine’s postwar security architecture brought the country closer to peace, though Russia did not immediately comment on the developments (AP).
Russian Strike on Kyiv Kills Two Civilians
Ukrainian authorities said an overnight Russian air attack killed two people in what appeared to be the first reported deaths from Russian strikes on the capital this year (Reuters).
Ukraine’s Government Shakeup
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy named a new head of his presidential office and new nominees for defense minister and energy minister (President of Ukraine; FT). The new head of Zelenskyy’s presidential office, Kyrylo Budanov, is one of the few officials to have maintained communication channels with Moscow throughout the war (BBC).
Zelenskyy Plans to Replace Southern Air Commander
Following deadly Russian strikes on Odesa, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced plans to replace the head of the Southern Air Command, Dmytro Karpenko (Kyiv Independent). Separately, the Institute for the Study of War indicated Russian forces have likely seized Siversk—a town with a pre-war population of less than 11,000—after forty-one months of fighting (ISW).
Russian Strike on Odesa Kills Eight, Wounds Dozens
A Russian ballistic missile strike on port infrastructure in Odesa killed at least eight people and wounded twenty-seven (CNN). The Kyiv Independent reported that Russian attacks have caused chronic power outages in Odesa city since December 13 (Kyiv Independent). Meanwhile, Ukraine’s General Staff said Ukrainian drones hit a Russian oil rig, the military patrol ship Okhotnik, and a drilling platform at the Filanovsky oil and gas field in the Caspian Sea that is operated by Russian oil giant Lukoil (AP).
EU Agrees to $105 Billion Loan for Ukraine After Frozen Assets Plan Fails
EU countries will lend $105 billion to Ukraine, bloc leaders decided (Reuters). Money for the loan will be backed by the bloc’s budget rather than by frozen Russian assets, ending months of debate about the possibility of using those reserves, which could have created a larger loan; still, the amount is expected to cover much of Ukraine’s projected budget gap for the next two years (NYT). The International Monetary Fund estimates that Ukraine’s military and nonmilitary financial needs for the next two years total around $158 billion (European Commission). Belgium, which houses the majority of Russia’s frozen reserves in Europe, opposed their use as collateral (FT). Russia had threatened lawsuits and other retaliation should the assets be used (WaPo). Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called it “significant support that truly strengthens our resilience” in a social media post (X). French President Emmanuel Macron called on European countries to engage directly with Russia to end the war rather than have their positions relayed through third parties (Reuters). Separately, Russian President Vladimir Putin held his annual year-end press conference today, which lasted over four hours (CNN).
U.S. Defense Bill Continues Support for Ukraine
The bill includes $400 million in assistance for Ukraine for each of the next two fiscal years; it blocks the United States from reducing troop levels in Europe below seventy-six thousand—near the current level—without consultations with NATO, despite a pledge in the Trump administration’s recent National Security Strategy to deprioritize Europe (FT). It also renews security cooperation with Baltic countries (Latvia MoFA).
Ukraine War Damages Commission
The Netherlands will host an international commission that aims to force Russia to compensate Ukraine for damages from its war; Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European officials attended a launch event for the commission in the Hague (Reuters). It is unclear how the group hopes to compel Russia to pay, though early discussions focus on using Russia’s frozen assets in Europe (BBC).
European Joint Statement on Security Guarantees for Ukraine
U.S. and European leaders committed to working toward a “legally binding commitment” to defend Ukraine in the event of a future attack, European leaders said in a joint statement (European Council). Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as well as unnamed U.S. officials, told reporters that Washington had offered security guarantees akin to those in NATO (NYT). German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that the current talks represent “the opportunity for a genuine peace process” (Politico). Merz has invited U.S. officials to attend a separate meeting in Berlin with Ukraine and European leaders later today, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and NATO chief Mark Rutte; European officials are preparing for a meeting later this week where they are expected to make a long-awaited decision on what to do with frozen Russian assets held in Europe (Guardian). A Kremlin spokesperson said Moscow expects an update from Washington after today’s meeting (Reuters).