Africa and the Gulf Are Growing Closer. Will It Increase Global Tensions?

The major players of the Arab Gulf—Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which are member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council, or GCC—have been upping engagement with African countries in a drive to diversify their economies and build influence in the region. African countries welcome those partnerships, but tensions remain over governance values, rights abuses, and control of natural resources, as well as concerns over spurring greater friction in ongoing conflicts in both the Gulf region and sub-Saharan Africa.

What’s happening?

The Gulf states have sought relationships with Africa in the decades since the continent's decolonization, but much closer involvement has taken shape in the wake of the economic turbulence of the COVID-19 pandemic. Gulf states have primarily looked to spread political influence and boost investments. The goals of African countries differ: some seek support for their development goals, while others pursue backing in conflicts such as Sudan’s ongoing civil war and the war between Ethiopia and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.

Gulf economic interests in Africa are rooted in import diversification, port access, and food security. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have long relied on food imports, and pandemic-era inflation pushed them further down this track. They have looked to African countries such as Ethiopia and Sudan for grains and other staples. Drops in oil prices have also led them to diversify in other sectors, such as critical minerals. Recruitment of African workers has also risen; over the last two decades, migrants in some GCC countries make up as much as 90 percent of the labor force [PDF], with Africans making up the bulk of it.

The Gulf also seeks closer African security cooperation to quell rising numbers of migrants flowing in from the south. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have the most active military presence in the region, both having expanded their military bases on Africa’s Red Sea coast since 2015.

Diplomatically, many Gulf states have sought to position themselves as peacemakers in African conflicts. Qatar spearheaded talks between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2018 and continues to mediate in Somalia and Sudan. Saudi Arabia in particular has positioned itself as an ally of Africa. It has hosted negotiations on the ongoing Sudanese civil war, called for African debt relief, and held the first-ever Saudi-Africa summit last November. The Qatar-based Al Jazeera news outlet has won much of Africa’s trust, bolstering soft power influence.

Why does it matter?

Some experts see growing Gulf-Africa ties as emblematic of the changing power dynamics in global politics. They describe a larger trend in diplomacy toward multipolarity, in which regional powers such as Brazil, India, Turkey, and the Gulf states become increasingly assertive.

The Gulf states have found willing partners in African governments seeking investment and ties beyond existing relationships with the United States, China, Russia, or former colonial powers such as France and the United Kingdom. The expansion of the BRICS bloc (the grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) in 2023 to include Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE showcased those sets of interests converging on the global stage.

These offers of much-needed investment come at a vital time for African countries, as many face growing debt obligations, declining investment from China, and continued economic disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic and conflict in Ukraine. Many are also struggling to manage the expectations for greater economic opportunity from large, youthful populations. Saudi Arabia has sought to capitalize on growing frustration among African countries feeling forced to “choose sides” in great power politics and constrained by what they see as an increasingly dysfunctional international system.

What are the concerns?

Critics argue that diplomacy between Gulf states and African governments prioritizes short-term gains over long-term consequences, and some question whether these economic arrangements offer sustained benefits for Africans. Others have called attention to the way that extractive industry partnerships between the Gulf and Africa are used to launder money, fueling illicit financing and smuggling networks. In Zimbabwe, a “gold mafia” reportedly smuggled millions of dollars worth of gold out of the country and laundered the proceeds via Dubai, enriching elites and helping the country evade Western sanctions. African governments have also come under fire for the lack of transparency or community involvement around large land leases to Emirati companies. Other analysts point out that such arrangements can threaten the food security of local communities, and serve as another example of African countries bearing the brunt of a climate crisis they contributed to the least. 

The treatment of African migrants in the Gulf has also generated blowback. Reports have revealed the inhumane working conditions many face, resulting in public campaigns to pressure African governments to better protect citizens abroad. A survey of Kenyan migrants in the Gulf in 2022 found that “99 percent had reportedly been abused by their employers.” Violence against Africans migrating through the Gulf of Aden, including the killing of hundreds of Ethiopian migrants by Saudi security forces, has also drawn outrage.

Despite attempts to position themselves as peacemakers, Gulf countries have also faced scrutiny for their role in exacerbating African conflicts. Security agreements and weapons sales to combatants in Ethiopia, Somalia, and Sudan have led to accusations that intra-Gulf rivalries are playing out via proxy battles in the Horn of Africa.

What comes next?

Experts say the Gulf’s relationship with African countries is likely to become further entrenched as the water-stressed desert states look to secure food supplies amid worsening climate change and protect oil-hungry markets in the global drive for clean energy. 

The United States and other Western powers with longstanding ties to Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have not objected to the growing Gulf footprint, even as concerns have grown in Washington over Iran’s sprawling role in African affairs. There are reports of the United States even helping behind the scenes to broker Gulf-Africa economic deals. Western powers want to “secure more African minerals, reduce the influence of Russia and China, and promote good governance,” as the Economist notes. The Gulf countries could help with some of these goals, “but are not reliable means to Western ends.”

The annual BRICS summit this October will mark the bloc’s first involving its new Gulf and African members, and a potential arena to watch for closer collaboration between the regions. Both African and Gulf countries are looking to advance their priorities in global negotiations and will likely find ways to collaborate in the expanded club.

Will Merrow contributed to the graphics for this In Brief.