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Introduction
Over the last several decades, governments have collectively pledged to slow global warming. But despite intensified diplomacy, the world is already facing the consequences of climate…
Reimagining American Economic Leadership
Building Economic Resilience and Advancing Economic Statecraft
RealEcon was pleased to welcome USAID Administrator Samantha Power to CFR for a conversation with Michael Froman.
Trade Offs
A regular series on the choices faced by international economic policymakers
Bipartisan support is growing to overhaul the de minimis rule, which exempts inexpensive imports from tariffs. However, Congress risks harming trade relations and spiking inflation if it isn't careful.
Featured Analysis From RealEcon
Exploring three key areas of international economic policy: trade and investment, development, and economic security, i.e., technology controls, supply-chain-resilience measures, and other policies to reduce risk to the economy or national security
Trade and Investment
Japan Braces for Trump 2.0
Article by Matthew P. Goodman
The Future of Trade in an Era of Disruption
Testimonial by Edward Alden
Trade Is A Win For The U.S. Economy
Article by Fariha Kamal and Inu Manak
Development
AGOA at a Crossroads
Article by Richard Morrow
RealEcon Welcomes Dr. Sadek Wahba To Discuss Global Infrastructure Investment
Event with Dr. Sadek Wahba and Jonathan E. Hillman
RealEcon Welcomes Assistant Administrator Michael Schiffer to discuss USAID Priorities in the Indo-Pacific
Event with Michael Schiffer and Matthew P. Goodman
Economic Security
Scott Bessent May Rue the Day He Became US Treasury Secretary
Article by Mark Sobel
Trade Protection Without Trade Promotion: Why Tightening Trade Rules Alone Would Not Strengthen U.S. Economic Security
Article by John Taishu Pitt
The Time Is Right for Ally-Shoring, and It’s About More Than Being Friends
Article by John Austin and Elaine Dezenski
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As Global Debt Explodes, China’s Central Bank Is Fueling and Obscuring It
China is using its central bank to prop up current and prospective Belt & Road clients. In the process, it is fueling and obscuring poorer-country debt problems.
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A Taxonomy of Sovereign Wealth Funds
Everyone seems to want a sovereign wealth fund these days. Even countries that have more sovereign debt than sovereign wealth are hot on the idea. It’s a hot topic. Over time, less and less of the growth of the foreign assets of the world’s governments has taken the form of traditional FX reserves, and more and more has taken the form of swelling sovereign wealth funds (see the chart below).
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China’s Imaginary Trade Data
China has a new way of calculating its good surplus in its formal balance of payments data. It is a deeply misleading. It also explains the apparent fall in the current account account surplus.
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The question is not whether the act will survive under a second Trump administration, but how it will evolve.
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China’s electric vehicle capacity will soon match total Chinese domestic auto demand, and total Chinese auto production capacity is already over half of total global auto demand.
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China’s growing willingness to defy the international order, and its increasingly aggressive leadership, have led it to increasingly utilize economic coercion against countries it believes have defied China’s interests. This coercion can be powerful, and the United States and its partners have not been well-prepared for Beijing’s actions. The U.S. and others need to develop a response immediately.
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An old school, “make blogging great again” style post. The rise in the current account surplus might be linked to the “carry” unwind in the third quarter.
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Trump's nominee to run the Treasury faces a tall order—dealing with mounting debt, implementing an aggressive tariff regime, and navigating a thorny relationship with the Federal Reserve.
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Bipartisan support is growing to overhaul the de minimis rule, which exempts inexpensive imports from tariffs. However, Congress risks harming trade relations and spiking inflation if it isn't careful.
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How Tokyo navigates tariffs and other Trump policies will be a test of leadership for both countries.
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Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies
Could President-elect Donald Trump end Fed independence on monetary policy? A legislative anomaly gives him a way. -
New England tells the story of two different economic realities: one of prosperous, highly educated, international elites; the other of middle-class families struggling to cope with the cost of living.
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Defensive protectionist measures should be balanced with offensive trade promotion, ensuring access to global markets and competitiveness with China in the Indo-Pacific.
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The long-standing surplus in the U.S. investment income account, often cited as evidence of “exorbitant privilege,” is receding. It already goes away without the income from profit-shifting by U.S. multinationals.
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From semiconductors and water conservation to mining and the clean energy transition, Arizona is balancing trade-offs that will have important lessons for the country.