Haiti

The murder of Haiti’s embattled president stands to deepen the country’s political, economic, and humanitarian crisis.

Anti-government protests could mean humanitarian crisis in Haiti, a country with a long history of instability.

American media is reporting that, during a bipartisan meeting with members of Congress on immigration matters on January 11, President Donald Trump asked why the United States should accept immigrants from Haiti and African states, which he characterized as “shithole countries.” Instead, he said he wanted more immigrants from countries such as Norway (he had met with the Norwegian prime minister the previous day). As the New York Times pointed out, this presidential discourse was similar to that in 2017, when he allegedly said that Haitian immigrants all had AIDS and that Nigerians in the United States would never go back to their “huts.” In the 2017 case, the White House denied that the president ever made those alleged remarks. This time, the White House did not deny what he said on January 11, and it has been confirmed by some members of Congress present. However, in tweets, the president is now saying that “this was not the language used.” His Deputy Spokesman, and the president himself in  after-hours tweets, sought to portray the episode in the context of “America First.” Predictably, the president’s comments have produced a storm of criticism and indignation from both parties. Some members of Congress directly characterized the president’s remarks as racist. Congressman Luis Gutierrez (D-IL) said, “We can now say with 100 percent confidence that the president is a racist who does not share the values enshrined in our Constitution or Declaration of Independence.” Congresswoman Mia Love of Illinois, a fellow Republican and who is of Haitian descent, said that the president’s comments were unkind, divisive, elitist, and fly in the face of the nation’s values. “This behavior is unacceptable from the leader of our nation.” The White House deputy spokesperson is trying to put the president’s comments in the context of the debate over changes to the immigration system. There are proposals, most from the Republican Party, to shift immigration criteria from family unification to skills, the latter sharing similarities with the Canadian system. There are also proposals, supported by the president, to eliminate the visa lottery. The immediate context is the debate over the future of the “Dreamers,” children who came illegally to the United States with their parents. That issue is also connected to federal financial issues, which, if unresolved, risk shutting-down the federal government next week. The president consistently advocates the reduction of immigration to the United States. For the record: African immigrants have higher levels of educational attainment than Americans and much lower crime levels. Often arriving with little other than their education, they move rapidly into the middle class. I have written before about African immigration to the United States, here and here. Also for the record: there is virtually no Norwegian immigration to the United States. Norway consistently outranks the United States in most measurements of national economic and social well-being, and its per capita income is higher. Americans would be naïve if they thought that Africans would pay little attention to what the president said or put it in a more favorable or understandable context. Popular African outrage—which is likely to be all but universal—is bound to have a negative impact on the image of the United States in Africa and on American political, security, and even economic interests. It is fair to say that the United States has suffered a serious setback in sub-Saharan Africa.

Labor Standards Three Years After Rana Plaza Three years after Bangladesh’s Rana Plaza garment factory collapse killed or injured over 3,000 people, labor rights remain tenuous. In the wake of the disaster apparel brands, suppliers, and the Bangladeshi government created the Alliance for Bangladesh Worker Safety, a partnership to improve conditions by setting standards and increasing inspections. The Alliance has worked with factories to build emergency exits, install fire hydrants, and rewire electrical systems. It has also blacklisted the worst offenders. Yet it only encompasses those operating under formal contracts. Over half of the nation’s 7,000 factories work in the informal economy. Here, the Bangladeshi government doesn’t enforce Alliance standards, leaving these workers vulnerable. Attacks on the Press Undercut Democracy The world became more difficult and dangerous for journalists in 2015. In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan seized several newspapers and jailed journalists. In Egypt, the government criminalized reporting that contradicts its own information. In Mexico, dozens of cases of murdered reporters remained unsolved. Even in established democracies the press came under attack. In France the government gained new internet and phone surveillance powers, and in Poland the government expanded control over state-owned media. A new Freedom House report finds that only thirteen percent of the world’s population lives in nations with a “free press”—where journalists can report political news without violence, intimidation, or state meddling. This undermining of the fourth estate mirrors that of democracy more generally, which has declined for the tenth consecutive year according to Freedom House. Haiti’s Election Troubles Continue Haiti missed an April 24 deadline to hold its long-delayed presidential runoff election and current political infighting could push a vote off until October. The country’s newly-appointed Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) says it needs more time to verify last year’s first round vote. The United States and others in the international community strongly oppose the delays, citing no evidence of alleged fraud. Haiti’s electoral chaos leaves an interim government in charge as the country faces an El Niño-induced drought and food crisis—its worst in over a decade—affecting over one million Haitian citizens.

As a new year begins, trade is slower, the drive against corruption continues, and electoral struggles shape fragile democracies. Here are three issues the Civil Society, Markets, and Democracy (CSMD) program will be following in 2016: International Trade Slows After two decades of trade growing twice as fast as GDP, the two are now even at best. With government spending largely stagnant and consumption fragile, this decline further diminishes prospects for economic growth. To revive this vital element of GDP, policymakers and economists often turn to Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), one of the most effective tools to boost international commerce. Yet these will face challenges in 2016. The recently-signed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) still requires ratification by its twelve member countries. In the United States, despite fast-track legislation and vocal support from business leaders, opposition in both parties will likely push the TPP vote to a “lame duck” session in November. Meanwhile the China-led Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP), a TPP alternative, failed to gain traction at the recent APEC meeting, and the U.S. and European Union’s Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) remains stalled over regulatory disagreements and European political opposition. As for multilaterals, members left the most recent World Trade Organization (WTO) Doha Round of negotiations without renewing its mandate, though they did promise to eliminate agricultural export subsidies. Policymakers will likely have to find other tools to promote global growth in 2016. Corruption Prosecutions Continue Anticorruption efforts triumphed in many places in 2015. Guatemalan prosecutors brought down President Otto Pérez Molina and Vice President Roxana Baldetti for their roles in a customs fraud scheme. Brazilian prosecutors indicted or convicted eighty business leaders and politicians, including a sitting senator, in the widening Petrobras scandal. In Nigeria, new President Muhammadu Buhari (who campaigned heavily on anticorruption) began investigations into billions of missing defense and oil funds, leading to fraud and money laundering charges against former national security advisor Sambo Dasuki and the UK arrest of former oil minister Diezani Alison-Madueke. And a U.S.-led investigation into FIFA uncovered a culture of “rampant, systemic and deep-rooted” corruption in soccer’s governing body, resulting in the indictment of thirty officials and forcing out its powerful president, Sepp Blatter. The international momentum looks to keep pace in 2016. Nigeria’s anticorruption crusade persists, as its Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) marked the new year by bringing charges against another former national security advisor, accused of diverting $1.5 million in defense funds from the fight against Boko Haram. The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) is signaling that FIFA was just the start, ramping up its Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) staff and plans for high-profile prosecutions. Elections in Fragile Democracies Presidential runoff votes in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Haiti appear headed in opposite directions, highlighting the often-present tensions between stability and democratic legitimacy in fragile states. In CAR, opposition candidates rescinded previous fraud allegations and now support a runoff election scheduled for January 31, paving the way for a democratic transition after years of religious violence. In Haiti, Jude Célestin, the runner-up in a disputed presidential vote, announced he will not participate in an already-delayed runoff. Célestin joins other opposition candidates in questioning the capacity of Haiti’s Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) to administer a free and fair vote on January 24, after an independent commission uncovered evidence of first-round fraud and irregularities. With increasing doubts about an upcoming vote’s credibility, the Obama Administration stressed the importance of a peaceful transfer of power before a February 7 constitutional deadline. Ultimately, in CAR and Haiti’s elections—as well as those to come in 2016— citizens rather than foreign observers will need to accept the results of any outcome.