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Asia Unbound

CFR fellows and other experts assess the latest issues emerging in Asia today.

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U.S. President Donald Trump and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim hold up trade deal documents during a bilateral meeting at the 47th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on October 26, 2025.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim hold up trade deal documents during a bilateral meeting at the 47th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on October 26, 2025. Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters

The White House Transformed Asia in 2025: Expect Much More in 2026

In 2025, the second administration of U.S. President Donald Trump dramatically changed the trajectory of U.S. engagement with Asia through its tariff-heavy approach, a trend that seems set to continue in the year ahead. 

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Thailand
Thailand’s Junta Leader Threatens to Stay on “Forever”
As Thailand’s political situation continues to deteriorate, with civilian politicians beginning to push back against army rule, and the deadline for a new constitution and free election delayed again, Thai Prime Minister and junta leader Prayuth Chan-ocha seems increasingly frustrated with the debate, compromise, and public scrutiny common in a constitution-drafting process, and a democratic society. The prime minister has become known for his outbursts at the press and other critics, but in recent weeks his speeches have become more vitriolic. Last Wednesday, in the middle of a long speech, Prayuth publicly warned: “I must make it clear. If there is no peace and order [in Thailand], I must stay on” as prime minister. Prayuth has not defined exactly what constitutes a lack of peace and order in the kingdom. It is not the first time the junta leader, already the longest-serving Thai coup leader in decades, has threatened that he could hold the prime minister’s job for an extended period of time; the junta had originally promised that Prayuth would just be a caretaker, until 2015 or 2016 at the latest. Yet Prayuth’s warnings about his hold on power, such as this one, have become increasingly ominous. By now, more than a year into junta rule, the military has taken over or co-opted most institutions in Thai society. Many press outlets are cowed, with some of the most critical reporters having quit or engaged in self-censorship. Thailand’s once independent bureaucracy has mostly toed the junta’s line. And it appears that even the royal palace is not immune from the junta’s power. A series of recent lèse majesté arrests, believed to be of figures close to Thailand’s Crown Prince, suggest the military may also be sending signals that it will weaken the power of the Prince and his associates. Still, Thailand’s civilian politicians have not all accepted long-term junta rule as a fact. Pressure from both Democrat Party and Puea Thai leaders helped force the first constitution-drafting committee to rule out some of the most antidemocratic clauses in their proposed charter, and ultimately to vote down the charter itself. Former Puea Thai politicians and Puea Thai supporters have vowed to begin holding public rallies, wearing red, the symbolic color of Puea Thai and of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Ultimately, a growing group of former Puea Thai politicians and supporters who want to make their voices heard may clash with the increasingly repressive junta rule. The effects of Thailand’s political instability are widely felt. Last month, Thailand’s exports fell for the ninth month in a row, as slowing growth in major Thai partners like China and the political chaos in Thailand combined to undermine export growth. The country continues dropping on surveys of press and Internet freedom, even though the junta has vague plans to position Thailand as some kind of regional IT hub. In the most recent Freedom House report Freedom on the Net, released last month, Thailand was ranked as “Not Free," falling behind countries like Zimbabwe and Venezuela in the ranking of Internet freedom. (The junta has proposed further constraining Internet freedoms by creating a single gateway for all content coming into Thailand, though whether it will follow through on that plan remains uncertain.)
China
Assessing the First Park-Abe Summit
For the first time in over three years, leaders of China, Japan, and South Korea converged on Seoul for a trilateral summit. As host, South Korean Park Geun-hye also held bilateral meetings with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo. The reestablishment of the China-Japan-South Korea trilateral summit along with commitments by the leaders to once again regularize the summit process was a reward for months of South Korean diplomatic effort to restore the talks as one antidote to rising regional rivalries and conflict over historical issues in Northeast Asia. Nevertheless, the first bilateral meeting between Park and Abe failed to yield anything tangible beyond the appearance of improving relations between the two sides. The China-Japan-South Korea trilateral summit generated an impressive list of areas (from trade and investment to environment, disaster management, and nuclear safety) where the three countries are working together. Much of this work has been supported by the Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat, which has kept the ball rolling on inter-governmental cooperation on many functional issues such as joint environmental cooperation despite regional political tensions. The summit document also sought to use trilateral cooperation to create momentum for the institutionalization of the Northeast Asia Peace and Cooperation Initiative (NAPCI), a Blue House priority. The summit also generated a procedural, but not substantive breakthrough in Japan-South Korea relations by enabling the first bilateral meeting between Park and Abe. Nevertheless, pledges to achieve a “swift agreement” on how to effectively address the “comfort women” issue belied the ongoing failure of the two governments to achieve closure. A “cold summit” result, including no joint press conference, no joint statement, and no Park-hosted lunch for Abe, reflected the ongoing political gap between South Korea and Japan, despite the re-establishment of normalized communication channels in every area of the relationship. Despite few results, many commentators were relieved that the meeting took place at all. The run-up to the summit had made clear that there were gaps between the two sides. Having dropped resolution of the comfort woman issue as a precondition for a bilateral summit, the Park administration tried to pressure its Japanese counterparts to compromise so as to generate a positive summit result, but Japan was not ready to move forward. This was unsurprising; Abe had signaled that Japan’s past statements should be regarded as sufficient to achieve closure in his statement marking the seventieth anniversary of the end of World War II. Park responded at the time that while his statement “did not live up to [Korean] expectations,” Korea would “take note” of Japan’s position that past statements “will remain unshakable into the future.” This exchange opened the door to improvement in Japan-South Korea relations, even as gaps continued to exist between the two sides. Park pressured Abe on the issue in her public interview with the Mainichi Shimbun in advance of the summit in which she expressed a desire for the issue to be resolved by the end of the year. However, Park’s efforts to generate public pressure on Abe to compromise were destined to backfire, further diminishing prospects for an early resolution of the issue. South Korea’s Senior Secretary for Foreign Affairs Kim Kyou-hyun reported Park’s position that “the comfort woman issue is becoming a stumbling block for improving bilateral relations and that it must be resolved swiftly in a way that will be both acceptable to the surviving comfort women and satisfactory to the Korean public.” Prime Minister Abe stated following the meeting that “regarding the comfort women issue, [Japanese] need to construct a future-oriented cooperative relationship without leaving obstacles for future generations,” and agreed that his administration would “accelerate talks” on the issue. However, it is not clear that renewed talks will move the two countries closer to a resolution if the issue is simply referred back to director-general level officials in the two foreign ministries, and it is doubtful that such accelerated talks will conclude by the end of the year. Those officials have already held periodic talks for over eighteen months, with no results. In the absence of political will to close remaining gaps between the two sides, the South Korea-Japan relationship will remain hobbled by history for the foreseeable future, severely limiting the potential for mutually beneficial strategic cooperation between the two countries. Scott Snyder is coauthor with Brad Glosserman of The Japan-South Korea Identity Clash: East Asian Security and the United States.
China
China Recalculates Its Coal Consumption: Why This Really Matters
It seems like a distant memory now, but just one month ago, the international community was lauding China for stepping up its commitment to address climate change by pledging to initiate a cap-and-trade system for CO2 by 2017 and contributing $3.1 billion to a fund to help poor countries combat climate change. Now, however, the talk is all about the release of a new set of game-changing Chinese statistics on coal consumption. A New York Times headline blared: “China burns much more coal than reported, complicating climate talks.”  And the Guardian reported: “China underreporting coal consumption by up to 17%, data suggests.” What does all this mean? The short answer is nothing good. Here are just a few of the implications: Chinese statistics are as unreliable as ever. China analysts, myself included, often say, “We don’t necessarily trust the statistics, we just look at the trend line.” This coal consumption recalculation, however, means that even this somewhat weak effort at analytical credibility no longer holds. Seriously, how does one ignore six hundred million tons of coal consumed in just one year? There have been some terrific articles on the problems with Chinese statistics over the past month by Gwyn Guilford and Mark Magnier. And there was a great report by Bloomberg that laid bare the metrics that different economic analysts use to arrive at their calculations of Chinese gross domestic product (GDP), some of which use data such as rail traffic and electricity production. Unfortunately, China’s massive coal gap suggests that even these analyses are relying on questionable data. Assuming that Chinese industrial production and manufacturing statistics are accurate, the dramatic increase in coal consumption that is now reported suggests that the gains in Chinese energy efficiency, as well as the reductions in energy intensity (the amount of energy consumed per unit of GDP), that have been touted over the past decade are much less than assumed—or perhaps they are nonexistent. China’s pledge that its CO2 emissions will peak around 2030 is suddenly much less significant than it was one year ago—and even then many analysts argued that it wasn’t significant enough. After all, we are now dealing with a baseline of CO2 emissions that is substantially higher than we originally believed. The question now is whether China will adjust its commitment to meet its newly revealed contribution to the problem. It is now all the more important that whatever steps China commits to take to mitigate its contribution to climate change are in fact realized. Doubts already have been swirling around China’s promise to implement a cap-and-trade system and to ensure that 20 percent of all its energy derives from renewables by 2030. China needs to put these doubts to rest. Once you head down the rabbit hole of what is fact in China and what is fiction, it is very difficult to crawl back out again. If one is looking for a light at the end of the tunnel, however, let me suggest two: first, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) had already released statistics on Chinese coal consumption in September that suggested that China had underreported its coal consumption by 14 percent during 2000-2013. It also, however, suggested that coal consumption was nearly flat in 2014. If the EIA is right on that score, then there may be some merit to all the reporting that China is turning the corner on its coal consumption, and the world could see a plateau in CO2 emissions (albeit at a much higher level) earlier than 2030. Second, the mere fact that the Chinese government actually reported the change in coal consumption is a positive. The timing of Beijing’s announcement, right before the Paris climate talks, may be unfortunate. However, greater transparency from a government that thrives on opacity is always welcome.
  • Asia
    Is a Genocide Taking Place in Myanmar?
    Since 2011, when Myanmar’s political reforms began, launching a stuttering process of democratization, attacks on Muslim Rohingya in western Myanmar have become common. The violence often has been abetted by paramilitary groups, hard-line Buddhist monks, and Buddhist civilian groups affiliated with the hard-line monks. Since the violence worsened in 2012, neither the government nor the leaders of the National League for Democracy have taken any effective steps to stop anti-Rohingya discrimination, provide suitable accommodations for Rohingya who have left their homes, help Rohingya who were stripped of their Myanmar citizenship regain it, or halt the activities of paramilitary organizations. The anti-Rohingya violence is a major reason why, in the past five years, Rohingya have not only become internally displaced people in Myanmar but also have left the country in large numbers. Since 2012, at least 140,000 Rohingya have fled their homes. If they stay in Myanmar, Rohingya migrants often are shunted into what research and advocacy group Fortify Rights calls “dozens of internment camps.” Fortify Rights adds that these are “not typical internally displaced person camps. They are beginning to look more like permanent concentration camps, complete with barracks-style housing and barbed-wire fencing. Residents can’t leave.” Many Rohingya have tried desperately to leave Myanmar on rickety boats with little food and water on board; the boats often are managed by human trafficking networks, and boat captains sometimes have abandoned the ships when they feared being caught by a foreign naval patrol. Although the stream of migrants onto boats bound for Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia lessened this summer, after a spike in boat people last spring, aid workers in Myanmar who closely follow migration patterns expect the outflow of refugees to increase in the coming months once again. As summer monsoons die down and it becomes (slightly) easier to put out to sea, several aid workers say, levels of outmigration from Myanmar easily could approach the number of outflows last spring. Now, a new report by Yale Law School’s International Human Rights Clinic and Fortify Rights suggests that the violence in western Myanmar goes beyond brutal ethnic and religious attacks. Although the Clinic does not say for certain that genocide has occurred in western Myanmar, it concludes that there is “strong evidence that genocide is being committed against Rohingya.” The Rohingya comprise a protected group under the international Genocide Convention adopted in 1951, and acts committed against them rise to the level enumerated in the Genocide Convention, the report concludes. However, the report notes, it remains unclear whether the acts committed against the Rohingya are designed “with intent to destroy the group, in part or in whole,” the third component of the definition of genocide. (As the report notes, “the crime of genocide consists of three essential elements: the existence of a protected group, the commission of one or more prohibited acts, and the requisite intent.”) Thus, to analyze whether genocide has been, or is being, committed, one must consider whether all three of these components of definition are met. The only way to tell for certain whether the attacks and killings in western Myanmar are being conducted with intent to destroy the Rohingya in part or in whole, the Yale Clinic concludes, is for an independent institution (e.g. a United Nations commission of inquiry) to complete a full and free investigation into the events that have taken place in western Myanmar since 2012. Among the evidence that the report cites in suggesting that genocide is taking place, it notes that the Myanmar government has limited many Rohingyas’ freedom of movement, attempted to pass population control policies, and set up the dire camps in western Myanmar---camps that are essentially now functioning as internment centers and that lack basic amenities. The government may be attempting to reduce the Rohingya population and, potentially, to isolate and destroy portions of the Rohingya population, the report suggests. As Shawn Crispin notes in The Diplomat, if the violence in western Myanmar qualifies as genocide, it puts the United States, Japan, the European Union, and other democracies that have pursued rapprochement with Myanmar in a difficult position. If “the Yale Clinic and Fortify Rights’ findings have legal merit, then [Myanmar President] Thein Sein would be a prime candidate for prosecution,” notes Crispin. Yet Thein Sein has been hailed as one of the architects of Myanmar’s reforms, celebrated in the capitals of many democracies. A conclusion that Myanmar was suffering genocide also would undermine the portrayal of Myanmar’s reforms as a major success story of the Obama administration---and a success story for the current Democratic Party front-runner, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
  • China
    China’s Role in Myanmar’s Dangerous Jade Trade
    Gabriel Walker is a research associate in Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. In late October, Global Witness released an important report that systematically explored Myanmar’s jade industry, calling it the “biggest natural resource heist in modern history.” The mining and trade of the gem have been catalogued by journalists, photographers, and authors in the past, but most accounts only mention China’s economic role in driving demand for jade. In reality, a wider range of Chinese actors are directly connected to Myanmar’s jade, some benefiting at the expense of miners and traders, and others suffering from the industry’s unintended consequences. Because of these close, but often overlooked, connections, China has a shared responsibility to take action and advocate for reform of Myanmar’s jade industry. The jade trade is rife with corruption, conflict, and disease. According to the report, jade production in Myanmar was worth nearly $31 billion in 2014, of which as much as 80 percent was smuggled directly into China, bypassing taxation and border controls in both countries. Companies in Myanmar linked to politically influential tycoons and senior government officials, including the former dictator Than Shwe, hold multiple mining concessions and reap millions as a result. Jade also funds both sides of the ongoing armed conflict in Kachin State, the center of jade production, underwriting the activities of both Myanmar’s military and the Kachin Independence Army/Kachin Independence Organization. An HIV/AIDS crisis also travels hand-in-hand with the gem: Myanmar’s illegally produced heroin flows freely into the main jade-mining town of Hpakant, a place to which tens of thousands of migrants flock hoping to find valuable stones on the margins of the mines. Drug use and prostitution are almost institutionalized there, with a heroin injection offered widely for the same price as a small piece of jade. Payoffs to authorities mean that both dealers and prostitutes operate with impunity. Unsafe practices result in an extraordinarily high prevalence of HIV/AIDS, with reportedly nine out of ten drug-using miners HIV positive. Chinese players participate on at least three levels of the jade trade: First, Chinese companies have underwritten the jade trade for decades, beginning with early investments in the 1980s. In Hpakant, it is an “open secret” that most of the twenty largest mining operators are owned by Chinese companies or their proxies, and one individual interviewed by Global Witness estimated that the biggest jade players received as much as 70 percent of their financing from Chinese sources. Although even an Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative report may not reveal the true source of a jade company’s funding streams, it seems likely that certain individuals within China may be deeply integrated within jade’s shady payout structure. If transparency measures aim for complete disclosure, Chinese actors must be unmasked. Second, in recent years rising prices and growing demand by wealthy Chinese buyers for Myanmar’s jade, in addition to the record-breaking sale of a $27 million jade necklace, have increased the stone’s market value and entrenched its mystique in the popular imagination. Because the vast majority of Myanmar’s jade ends up in China, a policy like the JADE Act—a U.S. import ban on all jade products from Myanmar—becomes largely symbolic and essentially ineffective in fighting the rising tide of demand. If any country should take the lead in restricting the free movement of jade in the worldwide economy, it should be China. Third, China’s neighboring Yunnan province also struggles with HIV/AIDS. Ruili county, the “world’s biggest market for unfinished jade,” has one of the highest risk profiles for HIV/AIDS in Yunnan—making it and a neighboring county essentially the worst place for the disease in all of China. As one case study pointed out, Ruili is a clear example of how HIV epidemics “cannot be dealt with solely at a local level.” And CFR expert Laurie Garrett has written that Myanmar’s HIV contribution to the rest of Asia poses a “clear security threat to the region.” If China is truly committed to solving its own HIV/AIDS crisis in Yunnan, it must work towards a cooperative solution that addresses the unchecked practices that ravage the jade trade. Beijing is in a position to advance critical improvements in the jade industry by engaging with Chinese stakeholders on multiple levels. The Chinese government in fact has already released conflict-mineral guidelines for Chinese mining companies working abroad, suggesting that it can at least nominally encourage responsible practices on the world stage. But for Beijing to have a real impact in Myanmar, it must stanch illegal smuggling, uncover jade industry–related corruption, and push for greater financial and operational transparency. It would be an encouraging sign for China to step forward to reform the jade trade—if only for this one stone, a symbol of China’s own prosperity—and take responsibility for protecting the welfare of its ailing citizens and regional neighbors.