On the latest episode of The President’s Inbox, Jim sat down with Liana Fix, CFR fellow for Europe, and Charles A. Kupchan, CFR senior fellow and professor of international affairs at Georgetown University, to discuss Trump's evolving policy toward Ukraine and his broader plans for a U.S.-Russia reset.

Here are three highlights from their conversation:

1) Trump has broken with both the Biden administration and European allies with his policy toward Ukraine. On Monday, the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the United States joined Russia, Belarus, and North Korea in opposing a United Nations resolution rebuking Moscow for starting the war. The resolution passed with the overwhelming support of America’s traditional allies in Europe and Asia, with rivals such as China and Iran abstaining. Charlie criticized the U.S. vote, arguing that “Trump has decided to throw Ukraine under the bus in an effort to end the war without a plan.” While Europe has insisted on Russian concessions as part of any peace deal, Trump has sought to build leverage over Ukraine instead. Beyond blaming Kyiv for the war’s start, Trump has demanded Ukraine sign the rights of some of its future critical mineral production over to the United States without offering any security guarantees in return. Trump is intent on disrupting the three-year firewall on support for Ukraine and isolation of Russia in his pursuit of a peace deal.

2) Trump sees his actions on Ukraine policy as part of a broader strategic gambit to reset relations with Russia. President Joe Biden responded to growing Chinese-Russian cooperation by seeking to deepen ties with U.S. allies. Trump looks to be ditching that approach in favor of rebuilding relations with Russia. Liana noted, “The primary goal is normalization with Russia, and Ukraine is a subset of that question.” To that end, Trump and his envoys have spoken of commercial opportunities and potential resource investments in Russia while casting doubts on existing U.S. security commitments in Europe. Russian President Vladimir Putin has yet to reciprocate the gestures, at least publicly, despite Russia's weakened economy and strained military. The risk is that Putin might pocket U.S. concessions on Ukraine or other issues without offering much in return, weakening U.S. influence in Europe without meaningful gains to show for it.

3) Europe is at a crossroads. On the same day that the United States was siding with Russia at the United Nations, European leaders were in Kyiv affirming their solidarity with Ukraine. With the Trump administration preparing to relinquish its responsibilities for securing Ukraine, the question is whether Europe can step up and turn its words into deeds. So far, Europe has been hobbled by energy dependencies, underfunded militaries, and a struggle to coordinate common action. “It’s a tough return to old-power politics for Europeans,” Liana argued. “They need to get serious.” The good news is that European states are increasing their defense spending, and some leaders have proposed sending peacekeepers to enforce a ceasefire in Ukraine. Nevertheless, with Trump looking to move quickly, Europe may be left holding onto substantial security commitments without the capabilities ready to defend them.

If you’re looking to read more from Liana and Charlie, check out Liana’s recent CFR.org policy brief “Partners in Peacemaking: How the United States and Europe Can End the War in Ukraine,” and Charlie’s recent Atlantic article “Trump Is Right That Pax Americana Is Over.”