South Korean Views of Rising Tensions Between Russia and Ukraine

South Koreans may feel somewhat distant from the Ukrainian crisis, and the most likely impacts on South Korea are secondary effects of rising Russo-Ukrainian tensions. Even so, the South Korean foreign ministry took notice of U.S. diplomatic evacuation steps by announcing a January 25 travel advisory to most of the Ukrainian provinces adjacent to Russian territory and maintaining close contact with around 565 Korean nationals, most of whom are currently located in or near Kyiv. On February 11, the travel advisory was updated to level four (no travel) and all Korean nationals were ordered to evacuate immediately.

The primary direct impacts on South Korean interests are economic. The South Korean government has primarily shown concerns that a potential conflict would create supply chain disruptions and price spikes in international markets that would be passed onto South Korea. Russia is South Korea’s twelfth largest trading partner, but South Korean exports containing advanced U.S.-originating technological components could be banned for sale in Russia as a result of the imposition of strict Western sanctions in retaliation for a Russian military incursion into Ukraine. South Korea will also face rising energy and food prices due to the possibility that flows of Russian oil and natural gas may be interrupted or curtailed or that lower Ukrainian wheat production might result in higher prices on the international market. A potential conflict will also generate financial pressures on the thirteen Korean companies active in Ukraine and the forty Korean companies active in Russia.

The second dimension of the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict on South Korea involves debates about the credibility of the United States as an alliance partner. The United States does not have an alliance with Ukraine, but U.S. efforts to cooperate with NATO to deter Russian aggression will influence ongoing South Korean evaluations of U.S. credibility as a security guarantor. In addition, U.S. efforts to build a coalition in opposition to Russian aggression will generate expectations for South Korea to align with like-minded countries to voice support of the inviolability of national borders.  

The third dimension of rising Russo-Ukrainian tensions involves its impact on the bandwidth of American political leaders to simultaneously address challenges in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. There is always concern in South Korea that a major conflict in Europe or the Middle East will lower the U.S. priority given to Asian issues in general and the North Korean challenge in particular. The U.S. ability to secure Russian cooperation on the enforcement of UN Security Council-imposed sanctions in response to North Korean missile tests will further diminish in the context of rising Russo-Ukrainian tensions. An associated risk of such conflict involves concerns about North Korean or Chinese opportunistic efforts to take advantage of American distraction to raise tensions or pursue objectives of their own at a moment when the United States is overstretched. North Korea would be well-poised to take advantage of the Ukrainian crisis by piggybacking on potential Chinese opportunism regarding Taiwan.

South Korea’s default position when it comes to major conflicts in Europe and the Middle East has been to lie low and focus on insulating economic interests in the region, even in the context of pressures to join in on sanctions and cut economic ties. But South Korea’s importance as a major political actor and middle power in a global context and rising U.S. expectations of South Korea as a like-minded strategic partner are generating expectations for the Asian nation to take a more active role in support of global norms rather than viewing such conflicts solely through the lens of economic considerations.