Boko Haram

Below is a visualization and description of some of the most significant incidents of political violence in Nigeria from April 13 to 19, 2019. This update also represents violence related to Boko Haram in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. These incidents will be included in the Nigeria Security Tracker.   var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1555946363426'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement);   April 13: The Nigerian Air Force killed four bandits in Talata-Mafara, Zamfara. April 13: Nigerian and Cameroonian troops killed twenty-seven Boko Haram militants in Ngala, Borno. April 14: Herdsmen killed two in Bassa, Plateau. April 14: Soldiers killed "many" (estimated at ten) bandits in Zurmi, Zamfara. April 14: Gunmen killed seventeen in Akwanga, Nassarawa. April 15: Seven Chadian soldiers and sixty-three Boko Haram militants were killed during a clash in Kaiga Kindjiria, Chad. April 15: Kidnappers abducted five in Ijumu, Kogi.  April 15: Herdsmen killed two in Ikole, Ekiti.  April 15: Gunmen abducted eighteen in Lokoja, Kogi.  April 15: Herdsmen killed six in Anambra West, Anambra.  April 16: Nigerian troops killed three bandits in Gassol, Zamfara.  April 16: Troops repelled a Boko Haram attack, killing fifty-two militants; two Chadian soldiers were also killed in Kukawa, Borno.  April 17: A gunman killed one herdsman in Kaura, Kaduna.  April 17: Gunmen killed four in Demsa, Adamawa. April 18: Gunmen killed eleven in Numan, Adamawa. April 18: Nigerian troops killed seven bandits and lost one soldier in Aljumana and Ketere in Zamfara (LGA unknown).   April 18: Boko Haram killed eleven in Tchakamari, Cameroon.  April 18: Gunmen killed sixteen in Tsafe, Zamfara. April 11–18: The Islamic State claimed to have killed sixty-nine soldiers over the past week around Borno and in Tomer, Niger.  April 19: Sectarian violence resulted in twenty-two deaths in Wukari, Taraba.   

Command and control among Boko Haram factions operating in Nigeria’s Borno state and adjacent territories remains obscure. One faction appears to be led by Abubakar Shekau, well-known for his taunting, bloody videos, and his kidnapping of the Chibok school girls in 2014. Another, the Islamic State West Africa (ISWA), apparently backed by the Islamic State (IS), was once led by Abu Musab al- Barnawi, though Mamman Nur was understood to hold real power. Last year, Nur appears to have been assassinated because he was too “soft.” In March 2019, Abu Musab al-Barnawi was replaced by Abu Abdullah Ibn Umar al-Barnawi. (Al-Barnawi denotes that the person is “from Borno,” so the current and former ISWA leaders do not necessarily have any blood relationship.) The report of a leadership change is based on IS audio recordings, though the extent of IS control over the leadership struggle with ISWA is not entirely clear. If, indeed, Abu Musab and Mamman Nur were “soft,” it is likely that Abu Abdullan Ibn Umar will be “hard.” However, what “hard” and “soft” actually means is obscure, as is the relationship between the Boko Haram factions and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Northeast Nigeria and adjacent regions continue to be the center of Islamist jihadist extremism. Scores of civilians were targeted and killed in southeast Niger by Boko Haram in early April, forcing thousands to flee to Diffa, a Nigerien border city. With the collapse of the IS in Iraq and Syria, some observers are characterizing Borno as the “largest remaining Caliphate,” though how and to what extent it is a direct successor to IS remains unclear.  The Nigerian army, in conjunction with the Multinational Joint Task Forces (MNJTF), continues to claim military success against Boko Haram. In neighboring Chad, officials are claiming that Chadian forces killed sixty-three “terrorists” in a mid-April attack on a military facility. But, the number of Boko Haram incidents has not declined. In early April, the Islamic State West Africa released a video showing its execution of five Nigerian soldiers; subsequently, it was determined that three of the soldiers were members of the Civilian Joint Task Force, an informal militia that assists the regular army. In the past, such videos have had a deleterious effect on military morale. The factions, for now, appear relatively distinct. The original split in 2016 had to do with, among other things, Shekau’s leadership style, his understanding of Islam, and his targeting of Muslim civilians. ISWA, according to experts, has been more focused on winning hearts and minds, and has even developed a tax base. Especially since leadership changes over the past year, ISWA has attacked a number of military targets with success, overrunning military bases and stealing equipment. According to the Nigeria Security Tracker, military casualties have increased significantly since July 2018. The Shekau and al-Barnawi factions of Boko Haram continue to evolve and even grow. Changes in leadership and tactics raise questions about the extent of their affiliation with IS and overall stability, but they also indicate that the movement is far from defeated.

Below is a visualization and description of some of the most significant incidents of political violence in Nigeria from April 6 to 12, 2019. This update also represents violence related to Boko Haram in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. These incidents will be included in the Nigeria Security Tracker.   var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1555337301078'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement);   April 6: The Nigerian Air Force killed twenty-five bandits in Birnin-Magaji, Zamfara. April 6: Two suicide bombers killed themselves and nine others in Jere, Borno. Boko Haram was suspected. April 6: Police killed three bandits while the bandits killed two officers and three civilians in Birnin-Gwari, Kaduna. April 6: Gunmen kidnapped eight in Kosofe, Lagos. April 6: Herdsmen killed six in Anambra West, Anambra. April 6: Sectarian violence led to fifteen deaths in Izzi, Ebonyi. April 7: Herdsmen killed a policeman and seven others in Omala, Kogi. April 7: Thirty-six bandits and vigilantes were killed during a clash in Kankara, Katsina. April 8: Herdsmen killed twenty-one in Kajuru, Kaduna. April 8: The Nigerian Air Force killed "several" (estimated at five) Boko Haram militants in Kukawa, Borno.  April 8: The Nigerian Air Force killed "scores" (estimated at forty) of bandits in and around Maradun, Zamfara.  April 9: Eighteen bandits and vigilantes were killed during a clash in Sabuwa, Katsina. April 9: Bandits killed five in Batsari, Katsina.  April 9: Nigerian soldiers repelled a Boko Haram attack in Damaturu, Yobe, killing "many" (estimated at twenty) militants.  April 9: Two Boko Haram suicide bombers killed themselves, one policeman, and two security forces in Diffa, Niger.  April 9: Herdsmen killed five in Ethiope East, Delta.  April 10: Gunmen abducted four travelers in Ethiope East, Delta.  April 11: Sectarian violence led to fifteen deaths in Ukum, Benue.  April 11: Two Boko Haram suicide bombers killed themselves and two others in Monguno, Borno.  April 1–11: Over ten days, Nigerian troops killed thirty-five bandits in and around Zurmi, Zamfara. 

Below is a visualization and description of some of the most significant incidents of political violence in Nigeria from March 30 to April 5, 2019. This update also represents violence related to Boko Haram in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. These incidents will be included in the Nigeria Security Tracker.   var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1554736096952'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement);   March 30: Nigerian troops killed "scores" (estimated at forty) of Boko Haram militants in Michika, Adamawa. March 30: Nigerian troops killed one bandit; two vigilantes were also killed in Tsafe, Zamfara. March 30: Bandits killed forty-three in Shinkafi, Zamfara. March 31: Nigerian soldiers killed sixteen Boko Haram militants in Lake Chad. March 31: The Nigerian Air Force killed five bandits in Gusau, Zamfara. March 31: Kidnappers abducted twelve firewood traders in Birnin Gwari, Kaduna. March 31: Sectarian violence led to one death in Oke-Ero, Kwara. April 1: Thirty-seven commuters were kidnapped in Kachia, Kaduna. April 1: Boko Haram attacked Chibok, Borno. No casualties were reported.  April 1: The Nigerian Air Force killed "several" (estimated at five) Boko Haram militants in Gwoza, Borno. April 1: Sectarian violence led to four deaths in Wukari, Taraba. March 29–April 1: The Islamic State claimed to have killed thirteen Nigerian soldiers around Kukawa, Borno.  April 2: Sectarian violence led to twelve deaths in Donga, Taraba. April 2: Herdsmen killed five in Logo, Benue. April 2: Bandits killed fifty civilians and Civilian Joint Task Force (CJTF) in Kaura Namoda, Zamfara. April 3: The Islamic State claimed to have killed five Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) soldiers around Kukawa, Borno.  April 4: Sectarian violence led to seven deaths in Ukum, Benue.

Below is a visualization and description of some of the most significant incidents of political violence in Nigeria from March 23 to 29, 2019. This update also represents violence related to Boko Haram in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. These incidents will be included in the Nigeria Security Tracker.   var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1554126554847'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement);   March 23: Boko Haram killed seven Nigeriens and kidnapped two in Diffa, Niger. March 24: Herdsmen killed two in Akwanga, Nassarawa. March 25: A Catholic priest was kidnapped in Kachia, Kaduna.  March 25: Sectarian violence resulted in "many" (estimated at ten) deaths in Izzi, Cross River. March 25: A Boko Haram landmine killed thirteen soldiers in Gwoza, Borno.  March 26: A North Korean doctor was abducted in Tsafe, Zamfara.  March 26: Boko Haram killed ten and lost two militants in Diffa, Niger. March 27: Kidnappers abducted a policeman and four others in Esan South, Edo; the policeman was later killed.  March 27: Gunmen abducted the former Nigeria Bar Association Chairman in Jalingo, Taraba.  March 27: Boko Haram killed one policeman and one civilian in Biu, Borno.  March 27: Gunmen abducted four in Akwanga, Nassarawa.  March 27: Sectarian violence led to three deaths in Omala, Kogi. March 28: Police killed five kidnappers in Ikwerre, Rivers. March 28: Boko Haram killed one in Chibok, Borno.  March 29: The Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) killed five Boko Haram militants in Kukawa, Borno; another two militants were killed by a landmine planted by Boko Haram. 

Below is a visualization and description of some of the most significant incidents of political violence in Nigeria from March 16 to 22, 2019. This update also represents violence related to Boko Haram in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. These incidents will be included in the Nigeria Security Tracker.   var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1553522795339'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement);   March 16: Sectarian violence resulted in ten deaths in Sanga, Kaduna. March 17: A cult clash resulted in ten deaths in Owerri West, Imo. March 17: A landmine killed eight in Gwoza, Borno. Boko Haram was suspected. March 17: Sectarian violence resulted in four deaths in Biase, Cross River. March 18: Boko Haram killed five in Michika, Adamawa; Nigerian troops repelled the attack and killed "many" (estimated at twenty) Boko Haram militants.  March 18: Sectarian violence resulted in "many" (estimated at twenty) deaths in Agatu, Benue. March 18: Boko Haram killed four farmers in Askira/Uba, Borno.  March 19: A cult clash resulted in eight deaths in Lokoja, Kogi. March 19: A policeman killed a civil defense officer in Abuja.  March 19: Herdsmen killed ten in Guma, Benue. March 20: A cult clash resulted in five deaths in Itu, Akwa Ibom. March 20: Bandits killed a policeman and abducted six in Anka, Zamfara. March 21: Herdsmen killed one in Ezeagu, Enugu. March 21: Boko Haram killed eight in Diffa, Niger. March 22: Boko Haram killed twenty-three Chadian soldiers in Dangdala, Chad. March 22: Election-related violence resulted in one death in Ussa, Taraba.  

Below is a visualization and description of some of the most significant incidents of political violence in Nigeria from March 9 to 15, 2019. This update also represents violence related to Boko Haram in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. These incidents will be included in the Nigeria Security Tracker.   var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1552925998539'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement);   March 9: Nigerian troops killed twenty-three Boko Haram militants in Abadam, Borno.  March 9: Electoral violence resulted in two deaths in Ibadan South-West LGA and one death in Lagelu LGA, Oyo. March 9: Electoral violence resulted in one death in Ahoada West LGA, two deaths in Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni LGA, and four deaths in Khana LGA, Rivers. March 9: Gunmen killed a policeman and abducted twenty Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) ad hoc staff in Danusa, Katsina. March 9: Electoral violence resulted in one death in Kankara, Katsina. March 9: Electoral violence resulted in two deaths in Akoko South-West LGA and four deaths in Odigbo LGA, Ondo. March 9: Electoral violence resulted in one death in Igboeze North, Enugu. March 9: Electoral violence resulted in two deaths in Idemili North, Anambra. March 9: Six INEC staff were kidnapped, then released in Lokoja, Kogi.  March 9: A ballot box snatcher was killed in Ukanafun, Akwa Ibom. March 9: Electoral violence resulted in two deaths in Guma, Benue. March 9: Electoral violence resulted in one death in Ughelli South, Delta. March 9: Electoral violence resulted in one death in Nkwerre, Imo. March 9: Bandits killed four and kidnapped "several" (estimated at five) in Isa, Sokoto. March 9: Electoral violence resulted in one death in Olamabor LGA and two deaths in Ankpa LGA, Kogi. March 9: Bandits killed one in Kajuru, Kaduna. March 9: Electoral violence resulted in one death in Akwanga, Nassarawa. March 9: Pirates kidnapped five sailors off the coast of Brass, Bayelsa. March 10: Bandits killed thirty-five in Kajuru, Kaduna. March 10: Two suicide bombers killed themselves but no others in Madagali, Adamawa. Boko Haram was suspected. March 10: Fifteen were kidnapped from a bus in Ikwerre, Rivers. March 11: Bandits killed fifty-two in Kajuru, Kaduna. March 11: Troops killed "several" (estimated at five) Boko Haram militants in Bama, Borno. February 15–March 11: Over the last month fifty-five bandits, three soldiers, and one vigilante were killed during continued military operations in and around Zurmi, Zamfara. March 12: Bandits killed twenty-two in Birnin Gwari, Kaduna. March 12: Gunmen killed a driver and kidnapped a Lebanese man in Kano, Kano; they later killed the kidnapped man on March 14. March 12: Bandits killed one and kidnapped three in Kankara, Katsina. March 12: Gunmen attacked a police station and killed four policemen in Owan East, Edo. March 12: The Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) claimed to have killed thirty-nine Boko Haram militants in Kukawa, Borno. March 12: Post-election violence resulted in eight deaths in Jalingo, Taraba. March 12–14: Post-election violence resulted in five deaths in Bauchi, Bauchi. March 14: Gunmen abducted a renowned Quranic reader and five others in Kankara, Katsina.  March 15: Gunmen killed two policeman in Yenegoa, Bayelsa. 

   

Below is a visualization and description of some of the most significant incidents of political violence in Nigeria from March 2 to 8, 2019. This update also represents violence related to Boko Haram in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. These incidents will be included in the Nigeria Security Tracker.   var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1552312878493'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement);   March 2: Gunmen killed seven in Giwa, Kaduna.  March 2: Herdsmen killed sixteen in Gwer West, Benue.  March 2: Gunmen killed two soldiers in Akuku-Toru, Rivers. March 3: Bandits killed forty in Shinkafi and Anka LGAs in Zamfara.  March 3: Bandits killed twenty-three members of the CJTF in Tsafe, Zamfara.  March 5: Bandits killed thirty members of the CJTF in Shinkafi, Zamfara.  March 6: Five were killed by a landmine suspected to have been planted by ISWAP in Maiduguri, Borno.  March 6: Nigerian troops killed seven Boko Haram militants in Shani and Mafa LGAs in Borno.  March 7: Sectarian violence led to twenty deaths in Bassa, Kogi.  March 7: Election-related violence resulted in two deaths in Lagos State, Lagos. March 7: Election-related violence resulted in one death in Ifo, Ogun.  March 7: Bandits killed twenty in Bukkuyum, Zamfara. March 8: Election-related violence resulted in two deaths in Ojo, Lagos.  March 8: Seven soldiers and thirty-eight Boko Haram militants were killed in a clash in Diffa, Niger. March 8: Nigerian troops killed "many" bandits (estimated at twenty) in Bukkuyum, Zamfara.  March 8: Nigerian troops repelled a Boko Haram attack in Mafa, Borno, killing "scores" (estimated at twenty-four) of militants. 

Below is a visualization and description of some of the most significant incidents of political violence in Nigeria from February 23 to March 1, 2019. This update also represents violence related to Boko Haram in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. These incidents will be included in the Nigeria Security Tracker.   var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1551715703052'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement);   February 23: Boko Haram attacked Maiduguri, Borno, killing one soldier. February 23: Boko Haram attacked Geidam, Yobe. There were no reported casualties. February 23: One soldier and six civilians were killed in election-related violence in Akuku-Toru, Rivers. February 23: Four were killed in election-related violence in Andoni, Rivers. February 23: Bandits killed the APC ward chairman in Chafe, Zamfara. February 23: Three were killed in election-related violence in Sapele, Delta.  February 23: One was killed in election-related violence in Ibadan, Oyo. February 23: Election-related violence resulted in one death in Dekina LGA and one death in Igalamela Odolu LGA in Kogi. February 23: An election official was killed in Degema, Rivers. February 23: Soldiers killed two in Southern Ijaw, Bayelsa.  February 23: Gunmen abducted ten corps members in Abak LGA, four in Itu LGA, and four in Ikono LGA in Akwa Ibom.  February 23: The Nigerian Air Force killed "several" (estimated at five) Boko Haram militants in Mobbar, Borno.  February 24: Gunmen killed five in Karim Lamido, Taraba. February 24: The Nigerian Air Force killed "scores" (estimated at forty) of Boko Haram militants in Kukawa, Borno (LGA estimated).  February 24: Gunmen killed a policeman accompanying election results in Egbado South, Ogun. February 24: An Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) official was kidnapped in Safana, Katsina. February 24: The Bayelsa deputy commissioner of police was kidnapped in Brass, Bayelsa. February 26: Gunmen killed forty in Kajuru, Kaduna. February 26: Bandits killed sixteen and kidnapped six in Rabah, Sokoto. February 27: Bandits killed fourteen and abducted forty in Anka, Zamfara; soldiers killed five of the bandits.  February 27: One was killed at Buhari's victory celebration in Lagos Mainland.  February 27: Two were killed during Buhari's victory celebration in Ojo, Lagos. February 27: Nigerian soldiers killed three during Buhari's victory celebration in Numan, Admawa. February 28: Three soldiers, one civilian, and "many" (estimated at twenty) Boko Haram militants were killed during a clash in Jere, Borno.  February 28: Bandits killed sixteen CJTF and sixteen others in Shinkafi, Zamfara. February 28: The Islamic State claimed to have killed ten Nigerian soldiers in Tdmari, Borno (no LGA given). March 1: Herdsmen killed one in Numan, Adamawa.  

Below is a visualization and description of some of the most significant incidents of political violence in Nigeria from February 16 to 22, 2019. This update also represents violence related to Boko Haram in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. These incidents will be included in the Nigeria Security Tracker.   var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1551107029486'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement);   February 16: Four Boko Haram suicide bombers killed themselves and seven others in Maiduguri, Borno.  February 16: Boko Haram killed three and kidnapped twelve in Gwoza, Borno.  February 16: Five Boko Haram militants, four Nigerian soldiers, and five civilians were killed during a battle in Gujba, Yobe.  February 16: Two People's Democratic Party (PDP) supporters were killed in Izzi, Ebonyi.  February 16: Five were killed in election-related violence in Etung, Cross River. February 16: Boko Haram killed six Nigerian soldiers in Magumeri, Borno. February 16: Seven soldiers and "many" (estimated at ten) Boko Haram militants were killed during a clash in Nganzai, Borno.  February 16: Two Nigerian soldiers and two Boko Haram militants were killed during a clash in Bama, Borno.  February 17: Gunmen killed the Benue local government All Progressives Congress (APC) chairman in Ohimini, Benue.  February 17: Bandits killed six civilians and one soldier in Batsari, Katsina. February 18: Boko Haram killed eighteen in Jere, Borno.  February 18: The Nigerian Air Force killed "some" (estimated at five) Boko Haram militants in Gwoza, Borno.  February 19: Two were killed in election-related violence in Oyun, Kwara. February 19: Gunmen killed an APC ward chairman in Ngor Okpala, Imo. February 19: Boko Haram killed five and abducted nine in Bouboura, Chad. February 20: Herdsmen killed seventeen in Agatu, Benue. February 20: The Nigerian Air Force killed an unspecified number (estimated at ten) of Boko Haram militants in Jere, Borno.  February 20: Fifty-nine bandits and seven civil defense fighters were killed in a clash in Chafe, Zamfara. February 20: Nigerian soldiers killed two herders in Makurdi, Benue.  February 20: Gunmen abducted eleven in Emuoha, Rivers. February 21: Five were killed in election-related violence in Bebeji, Kano.  February 21: Sectarian violence led to two deaths in Guma, Benue. February 22: Boko Haram killed an unspecified number (estimated at ten) of civilians in Jere, Borno.  February 22: Boko Haram killed four in Bosso, Niger. February 22: Two were killed in election-related violence in Ikwo, Ebonyi.

Asch Harwood is a research associate with the Council on Foreign Relations and the creator of the Nigeria Security Tracker. Previously at UNICEF and Reboot, he is the founder of Red Hook Media Lab.  For eight years now, we have been tracking the evolution of political violence in Nigeria with the Nigeria Security Tracker (NST). Boko Haram has always been a focus, and in August 2018, we published an analysis of all our Boko Haram data to date. But the NST also collects data pertaining to police and military violence, and sectarian conflict. We have also recorded violent crime and kidnapping. Nevertheless, we are most frequently asked about the conflict in northeastern Nigeria. We have therefore added several new charts to the Nigeria Security Tracker that focus specifically on Boko Haram. The first graph tracks the number of incidents per month involving Boko Haram. These include incidents where Boko Haram is the perpetrator, but also when the military strikes first. An incident is defined as a geographically isolated act of violence that takes place over a continuous period of time.  The figure on top right of that graph shows total deaths in the Boko Haram conflict since 2011, when we began the NST. This number includes deaths of Boko Haram members, state actors, and civilians.  The final three charts under Graph 5 display our effort to disaggregate the victims of the conflict (as opposed to the total number of deaths by perpetrator, which is displayed in Graphs 2 and 3 of the tracker). On the top is the number of Boko Haram killed, and in the middle is state actors, typically military and police, killed. The bottom is civilians.  Based on these charts, we see an increased number of state casualties since July 2018. But note that the scale of the Boko Haram and civilian charts is very different from state actors. Throughout the conflict, far more Boko Haram (or alleged Boko Haram) and civilians have been killed.  The Nigeria Security Tracker relies on public reports for its data. This is most useful in tracking changes over time. However, given the limitations of a media-based methodology, it is less useful in declaring definitively the impact of the conflict or the precise number of casualties. We assume a lot goes on that is not reported. Further, particularly in the Boko Haram conflict, there are incentives for the government to downplay the number of state casualties and overstate the number of Boko Haram casualties. Likewise, it is widely believed that the military has targeted civilians while claiming they are Boko Haram. Boko Haram itself has been particularly brutal in its indiscriminate attacks on civilians.   var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1550764563680'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='900px';vizElement.style.height='1127px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement);

Below is a visualization and description of some of the most significant incidents of political violence in Nigeria from February 9 to 15, 2019. This update also represents violence related to Boko Haram in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. These incidents will be included in the Nigeria Security Tracker.   var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1550595810051'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement);   February 9: Hoodlums attacked an All Progressives Congress (APC) campaign convoy in Abuja.  February 9: Boko Haram killed one soldier and one civilian; Nigerian troops fought back and killed three Boko Haram militants in Madagali, Adamawa. February 9: Soldiers killed two suspected cultists at an APC rally in Oguta, Imo.  February 10: Bandits killed nine and kidnapped fifteen in Shiroro, Niger. February 11: Suspected herdsmen killed sixty-six in Kajuru, Kaduna.  February 11: Gunmen killed one and kidnapped two university workers in Iwo, Osun.  February 11: Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) accused the Nigerian Army of killing five Biafrans in Owerri, Imo, and of abducting at least two Biafrans in Aba, Abia.  February 12: The Islamic State claimed to have killed forty-two in an attack on Governor Shettima's convoy in Ngala, Borno.  February 12: Nigerian troops killed eleven Boko Haram militants and lost one soldier and one civilian in Madagali, Adamawa.  February 12: Herdsmen killed two in Ndokwa West, Delta.  February 13: Herdsmen killed one and abducted a cleric in Udi, Enugu. February 14: Customs officials killed five smugglers in Jibia, Katsina. February 14: Three were killed during a clash between APC and People's Democratic Party (PDP) supporters at a rally in Yola, Adamawa. February 15: Gunmen killed an aide to the Delta State Governor in Uvwie, Delta.  February 15: Boko Haram killed seven Nigerien soldiers while Nigerien troops killed "several" (estimated at five) Boko Haram militants in Chetima Wanou, Niger. February 15: Gunmen killed six in Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni, two in Ikwerre, and one police officer in Obio/Akpor, Rivers. February 15: Two were killed by security operatives when they broke into an Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) office in Obot Akara, Akwa Ibom. 

Each year, the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) issues Ten Conflicts to Worry About, [PDF] a report flagging serious conflicts that are often underreported. The Sahel was listed as the region “most likely to be the geopolitical dilemma of 2019.” Among the others on the list, Yemen is "most likely to induce 2019’s worst humanitarian crisis," Philippines is "most likely to see an increase in authoritarianism," and Iraq is "most at risk of returning to civil war." South Sudan and Sudan, the two other sub-Saharan African conflicts on the list, are titled “most likely to see second order conflict problems,” and “most at risk of government collapse,” respectively.  The ACLED is a mapping and analysis project on political violence in Africa, South Asia, South East Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and Latin America. Highly credible and widely used by analysts, its data and analysis is freely available for public use. As a non-governmental organization, ACLED receives financial support from the U.S. Department of State, the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Tableau Foundation, the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the University of Texas at Austin, and the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID). According to ACLED, it has also received funding in the past from the European Union. All good company for a clear-eyed NGO.  The analysis of the Sahel dilemma highlights the resurgence of Boko Haram in northeast Nigeria and the Lake Chad basin, including its successful attacks on military installations and the occupation of some territory, as well as jihadist activity in Burkina Faso and Mali. Farmer-herder conflict in Nigeria’s middle belt, similar conflicts in Mali, and the activities of community-based militias are also discussed. ACLED’s bottom line: “the lack of political solutions to both jihadist insurgencies and inter-communal violence across the Sahel will foster an environment that allows these conflicts to expand.” Nigeria, West Africa’s hegemon, holds its presidential and parliamentary elections on February 16. It remains to be seen whether Boko Haram factions will attempt to disrupt them, or whether the large numbers of internally displaced will be able to participate. The past eight years have shown that military force does not work, but few candidates at any level have suggested a political approach toward jihadist radicalism.   

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