Books & Reports

Preventing U.S. Election Violence in 2024

Violence around U.S. elections in 2024 could not only destabilize American democracy but also embolden autocrats across the world. Jacob Ware recommends that political leaders take steps to shore up civic trust and remove the opportunity for violence ahead of the 2024 election season.

Contingency Planning Memorandum by Jacob Ware April 17, 2024 Center for Preventive Action

Russia

Leadership Change in Russia

Vladimir Putin’s grip on power in Russia does not appear as ironclad as it once did. Liana Fix and Maria Snegovaya recommend that the United States prepare for potential leadership change in Moscow and develop response strategies with its allies to mitigate fallout.

Contingency Planning Memorandum by Liana Fix and Maria Snegovaya February 15, 2024 Center for Preventive Action

Afghanistan

Countering a Resurgent Terrorist Threat in Afghanistan

With al-Qaeda and the self-proclaimed Islamic State in Khorasan growing in strength since the U.S. withdrawal, Seth Jones lays out a strategy for the United States to prevent a renewed terrorist threat from emerging in Afghanistan.

Contingency Planning Memorandum by Seth G. Jones April 14, 2022 Center for Preventive Action

Ukraine

Preventing a Wider European Conflict

To prevent Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine from escalating into a wider European conflict, Thomas Graham recommends that the United States bolster its deterrence efforts with NATO partners, while leaving the door open for Russia to de-escalate.

Contingency Planning Memorandum by Thomas Graham March 8, 2022 Center for Preventive Action

China

Preparing for Heightened Tensions Between China and India

China-India tensions remain high. To reduce the threat of conflict, Daniel S. Markey recommends the U.S. boost aid to India and begin working with like-minded partners to develop a coordinated response strategy.

Contingency Planning Memorandum by Daniel S. Markey April 19, 2021 Center for Preventive Action

Afghanistan

A Failed Afghan Peace Deal

The United States has reached an agreement with the Taliban, but significant challenges, such as political power-sharing, the role of Islam, and women’s rights, remain for achieving intra-Afghan peace.

Contingency Planning Memorandum by Seth G. Jones July 1, 2020 Center for Preventive Action

North Korea

Renewed Crisis on the Korean Peninsula

A renewed crisis on the Korean Peninsula could arise in the next twelve months. The United States should revamp UN sanctions and revitalize multilateral diplomacy in opposition to North Korea's nuclear development.

Contingency Planning Memorandum by Scott A. Snyder June 4, 2020 Center for Preventive Action

Conflict Prevention

Military Confrontation in the South China Sea

The trade war, fallout from COVID-19, and increased military activity raise the risk of conflict between the United States and China in the South China Sea. Oriana Skylar Mastro offers nine recommendations for ways the United States can prevent or mitigate a military clash.

Contingency Planning Memorandum by Oriana Skylar Mastro May 21, 2020 Center for Preventive Action

Venezuela

Stabilizing Venezuela: Scenarios and Options

The Venezuelan crisis threatens the interests and security of the United States and Venezuela's neighbors. The United States and regional partners need to provide humanitarian relief and security assistance and accelerate change to a post-Maduro democracy.

Contingency Planning Memorandum by Frank O. Mora June 14, 2019 Center for Preventive Action

Algeria

Political Instability in Algeria

Recognizing that a bungled leadership transition and continuing economic stagnation in Algeria would have significant ramifications for U.S. counterterrorism interests and regional stability, the United States should take steps—including precautionary measures—to manage the risk.

Contingency Planning Memorandum by Geoff D. Porter March 7, 2019 Center for Preventive Action

China

Averting a Cross-Strait Crisis

Domestic politics in China, political trends in Taiwan, and changing U.S. policy toward Taiwan are increasing the risk of a cross-strait crisis in the coming months. The United States should take steps to help avoid and, if necessary, mitigate a confrontation.

Contingency Planning Memorandum by Michael S. Chase February 26, 2019 Center for Preventive Action

Venezuela

A Venezuelan Refugee Crisis

In addition to a sharp economic downturn, Venezuela faces a humanitarian crisis. The United States can do little to prevent a downward spiral, but it should take measures to mitigate the political, economic, and humanitarian consequences of a potential mass emigration.

Contingency Planning Memorandum by Shannon K. O'Neil February 15, 2018 Center for Preventive Action