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December 4, 2013

Europe and Eurasia
Beware of Greeks Bearing Primary Budget Surpluses

Things are looking up in Greece – that’s what Greek ministers have been telling the world of late, pointing to the substantial and rapidly improving primary budget surplus the country is generatin…

Beware of Greeks Bearing Primary Budget Surpluses

February 11, 2015

China
Will China Bail Out Russia?

Russia’s foreign exchange reserves have fallen by nearly 1/3 since October 2013; they’ve fallen 20% just since September 2014.  Whereas the country still has over $300 billion in reserves, about $…

Will China Bail Out Russia?

December 16, 2014

Europe and Eurasia
The Politics of IMF Crisis-Country Growth Projections

IMF GDP growth “projections” accompanying emergency lending programs are nothing of the sort; they are targets the level of which is necessarily set high enough to enable the interventions. Take …

The Politics of IMF Crisis-Country Growth Projections

May 21, 2015

China
Are China’s RMB Swap Lines an Empty Vessel?

As our recent CFR interactive shows, central bank currency swaps have spread like wildfire since the financial crisis.  In 2006, the Fed had only two open swap lines outstanding, with Canada and M…

Are China’s RMB Swap Lines an Empty Vessel?

October 28, 2013

Capital Flows
Emerging Market Taperitis

“In considering whether a recalibration of the pace of its asset purchases is warranted,” Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke offered back on May 22, the Fed “will continue to assess the degree of progress …

Emerging Market Taperitis