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April 12, 2006

United States
Watch for imports to surge in March

China's March trade surplus topped $11b - and its goods exports were a very impressive $78 billion.  China February surplus was about $2.5 billion, and its exports only 54.1 billion.  China had an im…

Watch for imports to surge in March

December 18, 2007

United States
Yes, Virginia, the world’s central banks are financing most of the US current account deficit (my rebuttal to Richard Iley)

Back in the summer of 2004, Nouriel Roubini and I published a paper arguing that large trade deficits implied a deteriorating US net international investment position and a deteriorating “income” bal…

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August 9, 2006

United States
The June trade balance (a day early)

We know that China's monthly trade surplus is still rising.  July's surplus was close to $15b.  Tomorrow we will know if the US deficit is still rising. I usually offer my analysis of the trade data …

July 12, 2008

Monetary Policy
Too Chinese (and Russian) to fail?

The epicenter of the US financial crisis now seems to have shifted to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- the government sponsored enterprises that dominate the market for US housing finance. Few inst…

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December 7, 2004

United States
No Warm Glow from the Nobel Prize Here

Or more precisely, one of this year’s Nobel Prize winners in Economics seems to disagree with parts of the analysis Nouriel and I have been putting forward. It seems like Nouriel and I don’t underst…