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January 13, 2014

Monetary Policy
Which Fed Guidance Should We Believe?

In October 2012, the Fed issued what came to be called a “pledge” to keep its target interest rate near zero through mid-2015.  The market immediately reacted as the Fed wanted, centering expectat…

Which Fed Guidance Should We Believe?

April 30, 2014

Europe and Eurasia
French Banks Play Russian Roulette

In the fourth quarter of last year, with tensions rising between Russia and the West over Ukraine, U.S., German, UK, and Swedish banks aggressively dialed down their credit exposures in Russia.  B…

French Banks Play Russian Roulette

July 2, 2015

Europe and Eurasia
Greece Fallout: Italy and Spain Have Funded a Massive Backdoor Bailout of French Banks

In March 2010, two months before the announcement of the first Greek bailout, European banks had €134 billion worth of claims on Greece.  French banks, as shown in the right-hand figure above, had…

Greece Fallout: Italy and Spain Have Funded a Massive Backdoor Bailout of French Banks

May 5, 2014

China
China's RMB Fairly Valued, Euro Overvalued, According to Our Geo-Graphics iPad mini Index

The “law of one price” holds that identical goods should trade for the same price in an efficient market. To what extent does it hold internationally? The Economist magazine’s famous Big Mac Inde…

China's RMB Fairly Valued, Euro Overvalued, According to Our Geo-Graphics iPad mini Index

April 2, 2015

Monetary Policy
Is the Fed Gonna Tighten Like It’s 1994? Or 2004?

How will the Fed raise rates once it starts?  Gradually, in small steps?  Faster, with larger steps? In 2012, before becoming Fed chair, Janet Yellen argued for a later first rate-hike than would…

Is the Fed Gonna Tighten Like It’s 1994? Or 2004?