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Africa in Transition

Michelle Gavin, Ebenezer Obadare, and other experts track political and security developments across sub-Saharan Africa.

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Nigerian President Bola Tinubu speaks at the National Collation Centre in Abuja, Nigeria on March 1, 2023.
Nigerian President Bola Tinubu speaks at the National Collation Centre in Abuja, Nigeria on March 1, 2023. REUTERS/Esa Alexander

Rumors of a Political Capture

Accusations of influence peddling in the heart of its presidency raise the ugly scepter of state capture in Nigeria. Read More

Kenya
Podcast: The Poor State of Kenyan Politics
In this episode of Africa in Transition, I speak with Vincent Makori, host of Africa 54, Voice of America's daily African news show. We discuss the current state of Kenya's politics, focusing on Uhuru Kenyatta, Raila Odinga, and their families' political relationship dating back to Kenyan independence. We discuss the role that ethnicity plays in Kenyan politics, the role Cambridge Analytica played in most recent election cycle, and the apparent deterioration of democratic norms and the rule of law. According to Vincent, ethnic tensions in Kenya only manifest during election season because they are drummed up (with the help of certain foreign data firms) by politicians seeking short-term electoral advantage. To that end, political parties are primarily constructed around transient alliances defined by ethnicity rather than significant policy differences, and they change from election cycle to election cycle. Vincent argues that the personal and political rivalry between the two leading candidates, Kenyatta and Odinga, who are Kikuyu and Luo, respectively, has more to do with election-related violence than actual, historical grievances between different ethnic groups. You can listen to my conversation with Vincent here.
South Africa
South African Media Recognized for Exposing Zuma Corruption
The 2017 Taco Kuiper Award for Investigative Journalism went to a group of three media outlets that investigated and reported on the Gupta brothers, cronies of Jacob Zuma and widely accused of exercising improper influence or “state capture.” The three were News24, The Daily Maverick, and the amaBhungane Center for Investigative Journalism. News24 is an online news publication company, the Daily Maverick is a daily online newspaper, and amaBhungame is a non-profit. Even under the assaults of the Jacob Zuma administration, South Africa was characterized by constitutionalism, an independent judiciary, and the rule of law. Strong civil society, a free media, a sophisticated parliamentary opposition, and judges who regularly ruled against the government played interdependent roles in protecting South Africa’s democratic institutions. The media publicized corruption to the general public, civil society did not hesitate to sue the administration in the courts, and the formal parliamentary opposition was able to delay or block unfavorable parliamentary initiatives put forth by Zuma. Taco Kuiper, a wealthy publisher and businessman, established the Valley Trust before he died in 2004. Its purpose is to develop investigative journalism. South African media estimates that it is worth more than 70 million rand. The trust is closely associated with the School of Journalism at the University of the Witwatersrand (“Wits”) where it funds a chair of investigative journalism. It makes available up to 350,000 rand annually for print journalists or print publications seeking help to investigate and report on issues of public interest and awards the Taco Kuiper award each year. The award is an example of the close relationship between civil society and the media. The Valley Trust and amaBhungame are in some way both civic and media organizations. News24 and the Daily Maverick are for-profit media outfits. The Taco Kuiper Award statement focused on the close collaboration among the three organizations in their investigation of and reporting on the Guptas and their influence on the South African government.  
West Africa
China to Build New ECOWAS Headquarters in Abuja
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and China have signed a memorandum of understanding in which Beijing will fund and build a new ECOWAS headquarters building in Abuja, Nigeria. The cost of the building is 31.6 million U.S. dollars. The new building will consolidate ECOWAS operations in one building from the three it now uses. China has also agreed to maintain the new building for three years following its completion. China has agreed to build numerous public facilities in sub-Saharan Africa: parliament buildings in Zimbabwe, Congo, Malawi, Guinea-Bissau, and Lesotho. China is also rebuilding burnt parliament buildings in Gabon, and is renovating the parliament building in Sierra Leone. China also built and funded the headquarters of the African Union in Addis Ababa in 2012 at a cost of 200 million U.S. dollars. The Chinese represent these construction projects as acts of good will, but not everyone is convinced. In January 2018, Le Monde, citing anonymous African Union sources, reported that data from AU computers had been transferred nightly to Shanghai servers from 2012 to 2017. Le Monde also reported the discovery of numerous bugs. Beijing strongly denies the allegations, and the African Union has chosen to disregard them, after initially simply maintaining that it has no secrets to spy on. Allegations of spying on the AU are not new or confined to China; there is an earlier Le Monde report that British intelligence had been targeting African Union officials. Deliberations at ECOWAS are bound to be of great interest to Beijing. Given the growth of the Chinese economic and political presence in Africa, it is credible to assume that the new ECOWAS building will be bugged, as apparently was the AU headquarters. Chinese-built parliamentary facilities around the continent share a similar risk.  African passivity over the apparent Chinese compromise of AU data is discouraging, and their growing relationship likely will not help those promoting democracy and good governance. It is also unclear why the AU and ECOWAS headquarters could not be built and paid for by Africans themselves.  
  • South Sudan
    South Sudan Waves Goodbye to Guinea Worm
    In March at the Carter Center in Atlanta, South Sudan’s minister of health announced that Guinea worm transmission had been stopped within South Sudan. It has been fifteen months since the last reported case, and the disease has a life cycle of twelve months. That means the disease is gone from South Sudan, though it could be reintroduced from elsewhere. The World Health Organization is expected to certify South Sudan as free of Guinea worm. Elimination of Guinea worm is a massive, even spectacular, achievement orchestrated by an American non-governmental organization, the Carter Center, working with African ministries of health, numerous local partners, and a veritable army of village volunteers. In 2016, there were twenty-five reported cases of Guinea worm in the world, in South Sudan, Mali, Chad, and Ethiopia, but now, the disease is found only in the last three. Those three countries have a better health infrastructure than South Sudan, with its ongoing civil war and massive displacement of population. Hence, if the disease can be eliminated in South Sudan, it is likely soon to be entirely eliminated from the face of the earth. That would make it the second human disease after smallpox to be eliminated. It is to be hoped that polio will be the third. When the Carter Center began its campaign in 1986, there were an estimated 3.5 million cases worldwide. Present in ancient Egypt and mentioned in the Old Testament, Guinea worm is (or was) a scourge of the poor. It is a parasite, the larvae of which are transmitted in water. After the larvae is ingested by a human body, a three-foot worm develops. The worm then makes its way out of the body through a sore, often on a foot, by excreting an acid. Guinea worm itself is not fatal, but it is excruciatingly painful, debilitating, and increases vulnerability to other diseases. There is no cure for the disease. Modern treatment is the same as it was for the ancient Egyptians: the emerging worm is carefully wrapped around a stick to prevent infection. Guinea worm can be prevented through the filtering of water. That requires a public education campaign. The Carter Center had the imagination to take as its focus a disgusting but non-fatal disease that almost exclusively plagues the poor. With its campaign against Guinea worm, it might be argued that the Carter Center has done more than most official assistance programs to mitigate the lives of the African poor. A UN publication announcing the end of Guinea worm in South Sudan noted that former president Jimmy Carter, the founder of the Carter Center, announced in 2015 that he had been diagnosed with cancer: “He said he was responding well to treatment and he expected to outlive the last case of Guinea worm. President Carter is now 95 and cancer free, and Guinea worm disease just lost the fight in South Sudan.”   
  • Nigeria
    Nigeria Security Tracker Weekly Update: March 31 - April 6
    Below is a visualization and description of some of the most significant incidents of political violence in Nigeria from March 31 to April 6, 2018. This update also represents violence related to Boko Haram in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. These incidents will be included in the Nigeria Security Tracker.    var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1523281371799'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement);   March 31: Kidnappers abducted a bride and ten others following a wedding in Birnin Gwari, Kaduna. April 1: During a Boko Haram attack on Maiduguri, Borno, thirteen Boko Haram militants, one soldier, and fourteen civilians were killed.  April 2: Boko Haram killed five Cameroonian soldiers in Sagme, Cameroon. April 3: Gunmen invaded a police station in Kogi, Kogi, killing two police officers.  April 4: Two soldiers and twenty-one bandits were killed during a clash in Anka, Zamfara.  April 4: Bandits killed six in Chikun, Kaduna. April 4: Suspected herdsmen killed four in Takum, Taraba. April 4: Herdsmen killed ten in Gwer West, Benue. April 5: Herdsmen killed five in Donga, Taraba. April 5: Suspected herdsmen killed thirty in Gwer West, Benue. April 5: A total of fifty (estimated split of nine policemen and forty-one civilians) were killed during a bank robbery in Offa, Kwara.  April 6: A communal clash led to five deaths in Yakuur, Cross River. April 6: Nigerian troops killed five Boko Haram militants in Madagali, Adamawa; one civilian was also killed during the clash.