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Africa in Transition

Michelle Gavin, Ebenezer Obadare, and other experts track political and security developments across sub-Saharan Africa.

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Nigerian President Bola Tinubu speaks at the National Collation Centre in Abuja, Nigeria on March 1, 2023.
Nigerian President Bola Tinubu speaks at the National Collation Centre in Abuja, Nigeria on March 1, 2023. REUTERS/Esa Alexander

Rumors of a Political Capture

Accusations of influence peddling in the heart of its presidency raise the ugly scepter of state capture in Nigeria. Read More

Sub-Saharan Africa
Former U.S. Ambassadors to Africa Protest President Trump’s Remarks
President Donald Trump’s January 11 comments denigrating African countries has produced a fierce, continent-wide reaction. The concern must be that Africans will take the president’s comments as reflecting the views of most Americans, rather than merely his own and that of his small political base. In the aftermath of the president’s comments, the Department of State’s Africa bureau tweeted that “the United States will continue to robustly, enthusiastically and forcefully engage” with Africa, a weak response to African anger that reflects the reality that it is a part of the Trump administration, not independent of it. It becomes imperative that Americans who do not share the president’s views and are independent of the administration make explicitly clear the value of Africa to the United States. To that end, seventy-eight former U.S. ambassadors to African countries (including me) have signed a public letter to the president. (There were an additional seven signatures after the letter was delivered to the White House on January 16.) The letter affirms the importance of the multidimensional partnerships the United States has with most African states, which range from business to security to conservation. It makes the point that a close partnership with Africa is a matter of U.S. national security. The letter calls on the president to reassess his views of Africa and to acknowledge the importance of African contributions, and those of the African diaspora. As of January 18, there has been no substantive White House response. Those who signed the letter represent much of the Africa expertise once found at the U.S. Department of State. The letter is already being carried by some American and African media outlets, and it is to be hoped that more will do so in the coming days, especially those with an African audience. The letter has been distributed to the relevant majority (Republican) and minority (Democratic) congressional members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Members of Congress on both sides of the aisle had strongly criticized the president’s comments.  
U.S. Congress
Ed Royce, Champion of Africa in the U.S. House, Will not Run for Reelection
This is a guest blog post by Anthony Carroll. Anthony is founding director of Acorus Capital, a private equity fund investing in Africa, and a vice president of Manchester Trade Limited, an international business advisory firm. He has over forty years of experience working with Africa and is an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. House Foreign Affairs Chairman Ed Royce’s unexpected announcement of his plans to retire from Congress has given us pause to reflect upon his African legacy.  In my thirty-two years in Washington, I cannot think of any House member that has had such a broad and deep impact on Africa as Royce.  There were many House members who championed discreet issues in Africa whether apartheid (Howard Wolpe), hunger (Mikey Leland), Sudan (Frank Wolfe), trade (Charlie Rangel, Jim McDermott, and Phil Crane) and human rights (Don Payne and Chris Smith) but none has had such broad impact . Ed arrived in Congress in 1993 following a meteoric rise to political prominence representing his native Orange County in the California House. Among his initial committee assignments was to the prestigious House Foreign Affairs Committee (HFAC) where Chairman Ben Gilman asked him to chair the Africa subcommittee. In that post, Royce recognized the opportunity to bring focus to the oft-neglected continent and hired Tom Sheehy, an experienced Africanist (today Tom is staff director for HFAC). Among Royce’s African accomplishments was as an original sponsor of the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Congressmen Royce and Payne built an iron clad bipartisan coalition along with their Ways and Means Committee colleagues and pushed a reluctant Clinton Administration to eventually support the bill’s passage in 2000.  Payne and Royce, while of very different political stripes, also co-chaired the House United Nations Caucus. In 1998 Royce joined Speaker Newt Gingrich in awarding the Congressional Gold Medal to Nelson Mandela. The following year, Royce co-led an International Republican Institute (IRI) election observer team to Nigeria where he and Colin Powell cautioned the country’s powerful military to remain in the barracks and respect the results. Imperfect as it might be, Nigeria now enjoys a thriving democracy. While the House once again shifted to Democratic control and Royce moved from the Africa subcommittee chairmanship, he rallied skeptical Republicans to pass and fund the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), which embodies Royce’s deep commitment to promoting the rule of law in Africa.  Royce was willing to travel to dangerous and obscure African destinations. Witnessing the carnage caused in Liberia and Sierra Leone by Charles Taylor, Royce joined with Ambassador Susan Rice in hounding Taylor until his arrest in 2006. Royce elevated attention on both Taylor’s misdeeds and our special relationship with Liberia, which next week will celebrate its first transition to a newly elected president. His work in clearing up the civil wars in Sierra Leone and Liberia gave momentum to the Kimberly Process, which helped lead to the demise of the blood diamond trade.  When he assumed the HFAC chair five years ago, Royce crafted a deep bipartisan leadership model with the Committee’s ranking member Eliot Engel. Not since Lee Hamilton have we seen a Chairman exhibit such leadership.  Royce maintained support for the agencies to which he provided oversight including Peace Corps, USAID, and OPIC, and he pushed the State Department to establish an effective inspector general. Certainly, Iran, Russia, and North Korea commanded the headlines but Royce never left Africa behind. He led the renewal of AGOA, sponsored legislation expanding U.S. assistance to develop Africa’s power supply, and thwarted the poaching of African wildlife and the illicit trade of its bounty. Royce has always been driven by a desire to do the right thing and not let partisan politics or special interests get in the way. Indeed, there were few votes in Orange County that were swayed by African issues. He has been relentless in explaining the importance of Africa to his fellow members of Congress. Royce’s departure will not only be a loss for Africa’s presence in Washington but also for the long cherished notion that partisan politics ends at the American shoreline. Safari njema Mzee Royce.
Sub-Saharan Africa
African Anger Builds Over President Trump’s Racist Comments
Far from dissipating, African anger is building over President Donald Trump’s negative characterization of Africa on January 11. African leaders are rejecting President Trump’s denials that he used gutter language, and a media review shows there is an emerging consensus among African opinion leaders that he is a flat-out racist. There is indignation among Africans when Americans seem to tip-toe around what they regard as the overwhelming evidence of his racism. Over the Martin Luther King holiday weekend, Botswana, Ghana, Haiti, Namibia, Senegal, and the African Union have made formal diplomatic protests. Botswana, with among the best social and economic statistics on the continent, has asked the administration “to clarify if Botswana is regarded as a ‘shithole country.’” Cyril Ramaphosa, the new president of South Africa’s governing African National Congress, has characterized the president’s remarks as “really, really derogatory, and highly offensive.” Nigeria’s foreign minister has called in American diplomats to explain the president’s remarks, characterizing them as “deeply hurtful, offensive and unacceptable.” Over the coming days, there are likely to be more official African responses. Nigeria and South Africa are the continent’s economic and political powerhouses. With Botswana, Ghana, Namibia, and Senegal, the five are on a democratic trajectory, albeit at different stages. U.S. cooperation with Nigeria in the fight against terrorism had been growing. While the bilateral relationship with South Africa is no more than “correct,” relations among the other four with Washington have been close—up to now.  According to the New York Times, the State Department has instructed its missions not to deny that the president made the remarks attributed to him, but merely to listen. Given African fury, that approach is wise. In Africa as in the United States, there is skepticism that the president tells the truth, and his denials are discounted. The president’s comments have damaged the interests of the United States in the world’s second largest continent with more than one billion people. The political and security consequences are likely to be negative, especially in multilateral fora such as the United Nations or the World Trade Organization. Alienation of Africans can have consequences on issues where the administration is seeking to rally world opinion, like North Korea, for example. Further, this racist and anti-African rhetoric is likely to strengthen the hand of those in Africa that would see their countries turn away from the West and towards more authoritarian governments, like those of Russia and China. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was expected to travel to Africa sometime in the near future, even though there is still no assistant secretary of state for Africa in place. If he does make the trip soon, his reception is likely to be frosty.
  • Nigeria
    Nigeria Security Tracker Weekly Update: January 6 - January 12
    Below is a visualization and description of some of the most significant incidents of political violence in Nigeria from January 6 to January 12, 2017. This update also represents violence related to Boko Haram in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. These incidents will be included in the Nigeria Security Tracker.   var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1516130950094'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement);   January 6: Herdsmen killed sixteen in Logo, Benue.  January 7: Police killed two Shi'ites in Kaduna South, Kaduna. January 8: Unknown gunmen killed three in Sardauna, Taraba. January 8: During a battle in Mobar, Borno, 3 Nigerian soldiers, 1 CJTF member, and 107 Boko Haram militants were killed. January 8: Herdsmen killed two policemen in Logo, Benue. January 9: Soldiers killed two suicide bombers before they could detonate in Ngala, Benue. Boko Haram was suspected. January 10: Boko Haram killed three and abducted two in Kolofata, Cameroon. January 10: Boko Haram killed one in Ashigashiya, Cameroon.  January 11: The CJTF killed "several" militants (est. at five) in Burutu, Anambra.  January 12: Boko Haram killed one in Maiduguri, Borno.
  • United States
    President Trump Attacks African and Haitian Immigration to the United States
    American media is reporting that, during a bipartisan meeting with members of Congress on immigration matters on January 11, President Donald Trump asked why the United States should accept immigrants from Haiti and African states, which he characterized as “shithole countries.” Instead, he said he wanted more immigrants from countries such as Norway (he had met with the Norwegian prime minister the previous day). As the New York Times pointed out, this presidential discourse was similar to that in 2017, when he allegedly said that Haitian immigrants all had AIDS and that Nigerians in the United States would never go back to their “huts.” In the 2017 case, the White House denied that the president ever made those alleged remarks. This time, the White House did not deny what he said on January 11, and it has been confirmed by some members of Congress present. However, in tweets, the president is now saying that “this was not the language used.” His Deputy Spokesman, and the president himself in  after-hours tweets, sought to portray the episode in the context of “America First.” Predictably, the president’s comments have produced a storm of criticism and indignation from both parties. Some members of Congress directly characterized the president’s remarks as racist. Congressman Luis Gutierrez (D-IL) said, “We can now say with 100 percent confidence that the president is a racist who does not share the values enshrined in our Constitution or Declaration of Independence.” Congresswoman Mia Love of Illinois, a fellow Republican and who is of Haitian descent, said that the president’s comments were unkind, divisive, elitist, and fly in the face of the nation’s values. “This behavior is unacceptable from the leader of our nation.” The White House deputy spokesperson is trying to put the president’s comments in the context of the debate over changes to the immigration system. There are proposals, most from the Republican Party, to shift immigration criteria from family unification to skills, the latter sharing similarities with the Canadian system. There are also proposals, supported by the president, to eliminate the visa lottery. The immediate context is the debate over the future of the “Dreamers,” children who came illegally to the United States with their parents. That issue is also connected to federal financial issues, which, if unresolved, risk shutting-down the federal government next week. The president consistently advocates the reduction of immigration to the United States. For the record: African immigrants have higher levels of educational attainment than Americans and much lower crime levels. Often arriving with little other than their education, they move rapidly into the middle class. I have written before about African immigration to the United States, here and here. Also for the record: there is virtually no Norwegian immigration to the United States. Norway consistently outranks the United States in most measurements of national economic and social well-being, and its per capita income is higher. Americans would be naïve if they thought that Africans would pay little attention to what the president said or put it in a more favorable or understandable context. Popular African outrage—which is likely to be all but universal—is bound to have a negative impact on the image of the United States in Africa and on American political, security, and even economic interests. It is fair to say that the United States has suffered a serious setback in sub-Saharan Africa.