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Rumors of a Political Capture
Accusations of influence peddling in the heart of its presidency raise the ugly scepter of state capture in Nigeria. Read More
The Intransigence of Kenya’s Raila Odinga
Not only is opposition leader Raila Odinga refusing to recognize the presidency of Uhuru Kenyatta, sworn in on Tuesday, he has announced that he will be sworn in as “the people’s president” at a December 12 ceremony. The legal basis for the inauguration, he said, will be Article One of the Kenyan constitution, which states that sovereign power rests with the people. Odinga, leader of the opposition National Super Alliance (NASA), continues to insist that he won the original elections on August 8, in which Kenyatta was declared the victor. Those results were annulled by the supreme court, which judged that constitutional procedures had not been followed. Odinga boycotted the election rerun, which took place on October 26, resulting in Kenyatta winning some 98 percent of the vote amid 39 percent voter turnout (roughly half of what it was for the August election). Odinga denies that the most recent elections are legitimate. For his part, Kenyatta used rhetoric designed to unify at his inauguration, even as police broke up Odinga’s concurrent rally and prayer meeting with tear gas.
Kenyatta and Odinga are “big men,” multi-millionaire scions of families that have been rivals since Kenya’s independence. They are playing with fire. Kenyan politics are shaped by ethnic identities. Kenyatta’s Kikuyu is probably the largest ethnic group, and its politicians have dominated Kenyan governance for much of its post-colonial history. Other ethnic groups, notably Odinga’s Luo, regard themselves as marginalized. The continuing political turmoil in Nairobi is almost certainly having an economic impact on Kenya and the entire east African region, though it is hard to quantify. Odinga’s announcement that he will stage an inauguration on December 12 is bound to add to investor uncertainty.
What happens next? Kenyatta controls the Kenyan bureaucracy, the army, and the police. His inauguration has been recognized by the judiciary and the international community. Odinga, on the other hand, has substantial support in the Nairobi slums and in those parts of the country dominated by the Luo and their tribal allies. Odinga could bring the country to a halt. A wild card is the undisciplined police and the other security services. Most of the deaths that have taken place during this election cycle have been civilians at the hands of police. Further police violence could set off Odinga’s supporters, who are already seething, though it’s unclear what it will take (at least fifty people have died in election-related violence since August). So, too, could any move to arrest Odinga. Should either happen, it is likely that he would be unable to control his supporters, and mayhem would follow.
Two Wives, One Robert Mugabe
It is in the interest of the ZANU-PF regime, now headed by former vice president Emmerson Mnangagwa, that blame for Zimbabwe’s ills be shifted from deposed president Robert Mugabe to his wife, Grace. Mugabe is a liberation icon, popular all over Africa, and his ZANU-PF regime still rules Zimbabwe. Therefore, Mnangagwa’s regime will endeavor to keep Mugabe on his pedestal, not least because of his residual icon status with other African leaders. Further, the military is representing its coup as an “intervention,” not against the president, but rather against the “criminals” that surrounded him. This is a scenario of ‘Don’t blame the king, instead blame the “evil counselors,”’ of which the most important was his wife, Grace. The impeachment charges that drove Mugabe to resign included that he had failed to keep Grace and her associates under control, not that he himself had engaged in criminal behavior.
In Zimbabwe, the “wicked Grace” narrative is balanced by the “Amai” (mother) narrative of Sally, Mugabe’s first wife. She was known for her charitable work, and was as popular as Grace was unpopular on the street. According to this narrative, it was after Sally died, to be succeeded by Grace, that Mugabe went off the tracks. So, the grotesqueries of Mugabe, especially his last years, were the fault of a woman—not of himself. It is a variation of the “Adam and Eve” narrative. The snake persuaded Eve to eat the forbidden apple, and Eve convinced Adam. So, to blame for the 'Fall' are a woman and a snake—not Adam.
In fact, the tyranny of Mugabe was the result of his own political skill and ruthlessness, and his tight alliance with the military and veterans of the liberation struggle, or the Second Chimurenga. Neither Sally nor Grace played much of a role in his mismanagement of the country. After 2014, however, Grace began angling to succeed her husband as president. It is when the military and the war veterans became convinced that she might succeed that they moved against Mugabe. She nominally precipitated the coup, but its root cause was Mugabe’s insistence on maintaining control even as he visibly declined with age. Grace, however, was known for her shopping, not her politics. Rather than overwhelming presidential ambition, it is more likely that she was her husbands pawn to maintain his power as his health progressively declined. He was pulling the strings, not her.
Nigeria Security Tracker Weekly Update: November 18 - November 24
Below is a visualization and description of some of the most significant incidents of political violence in Nigeria from November 18 to November 24, 2017. This update also represents violence related to Boko Haram in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. These incidents will be included in the Nigeria Security Tracker.
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(last week, November 17: Armed bandits killed three in Maradun LGA and twenty-two in Shinkafi LGA in Zamfara)
November 18: Four suicide bombers killed themselves and two others in Jere, Borno. Boko Haram was suspected.
November 19: Gunmen killed six in Ukanafun, Akwa Ibom.
November 19: Boko Haram beheaded six farmers in Mafa, Borno.
November 20: A Boko Haram suicide bomber killed himself and two others in Kolofata, Cameroon.
November 20: Nigerian security operatives killed six oil militants in Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni, Rivers.
November 20: Sectarian violence led to forty-five deaths in Numan, Adamawa.
November 21: A suicide bomber killed himself and fifty-nine others at a mosque in Mubi North, Adamawa. Boko Haram was suspected.
November 21: Kidnappers killed one Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC) marshal and abducted two other marshals in Gurara, Niger.
November 23: Members of a vigilance group killed ten militants in Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni, Rivers.
November 23: Suspected Boko Haram militants killed seven in Gombi, Adamawa.
Facing Impeachment, Zimbabwe's Mugabe Resigns
Robert Mugabe resigned by means of a letter to the speaker just as parliament began debating his impeachment today. Earlier today, President Ian Khama of Botswana penned an open letter to Mugabe urging him “to do the honorable thing by voluntarily relinquishing power.” Khama was blunt: “the people of Zimbabwe have for a long time been subjected to untold suffering as a result of poor governance under your leadership. It is therefore my conviction that by vacating the Presidency, this will usher in a new political dispensation that will pave the way for the much needed socio-economic recovery in Zimbabwe.” As Khama acknowledges, an open letter is “not the normal method of communication between leaders.” Nor is it normal for one African chief of state to criticize publicly another. Botswana, it should be noted, is also a democracy conducted according to the rule of law, unlike Zimbabwe.
Emmerson Mnangagwa, the vice president whom Mugabe fired, also called on the president to respect the “will of the people” and resign. Contrary to earlier reports, he remains outside of Zimbabwe at an undisclosed location. He is saying that he fled because of a plot against his life, and that he will not return until his personal safety is guaranteed, by whom was left unsaid. Now he will likely return post haste, as he is slated to be sworn in as president in the coming days.
Negotiations between the military, led by General Constantino Chiwenga, and Mugabe had been underway since he was placed under house arrest. Speculation had been that whatever deal was reached would include the return and reinstatement of Mnangagwa as vice president. One scenario had been that at a decent interval, perhaps at the December ZANU-PF congress, Mugabe would resign and Mnangagwa would become president. But such was the pressure on Mugabe from elements within the military and his party, as well as from the Zimbabwean people, that Mugabe concluded that resignation was the only way out. The fate of his wife, Grace, and his sons remains unclear. Mugabe’s resignation provides the military with a much-needed fig leaf of legality to cover what had in fact been a military coup.
Up to now, the coup and Mugbe’s future have been an internal matter within ZANU-PF, but there were increasing popular demonstrations in Harare calling for Mugabe to go. The military and Mugabe himself may have concluded that it was no longer possible for ZANU-PF to keep the Zimbabwean people out, and the popular demonstrations indicated that they wanted him to go; this was confirmed by celebrations in the streets and in the house of parliament after learning of his resignation.
President Khama of Botswana is correct in his assessment of the Mugabe regime. The ZANU-PF, formerly led by Mugabe and soon to be led by Mnangagwa, resembles in some ways a criminal conspiracy or a Mafioso organization. Most of the leading ZANU-PF actors in the Zimbabwe drama are under U.S. and EU sanctions for human rights violations, including Mugabe, Mnangagwa, and some 200 other political and military figures and their affiliates. However, the coup and Mugabe’s departure shows that change is possible, even as Mnangagwa, cut from the same cloth as Mugabe, is set to succeed him. It is too soon to tell what direction Zimbabwe will now take, but in the short term, continuity of governance is the most likely.
Nigeria Security Tracker Weekly Update: November 11 - November 17
Below is a visualization and description of some of the most significant incidents of political violence in Nigeria from November 11 to November 17, 2017. This update also represents violence related to Boko Haram in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. These incidents will be included in the Nigeria Security Tracker.
var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1511272949727'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement);
November 11: Boko Haram killed two in Askira/Uba, Borno.
November 11: Sectarian violence led to two deaths in Ekiti, Kwara.
November 12: A Nigerian Army Sargeant killed five before killing himself in Chibok, Borno.
November 13: Police non-fatally shot two university staff members in Ibadan, Oyo.
November 15: Four suicide bombers killed themselves and fourteen others in Maiduguri, Borno. Boko Haram was suspected.
November 16: Two were kidnapped in Ajaokuta, Kogi.
November 17: Soldiers killed three protesters in Edu, Kwara.
